Middle East: Water deficits to emerge in central Iran

Middle East: Water deficits to emerge in central Iran

23 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending March 2021 indicates widespread persistent water surpluses from Syria through northern Iraq and many regions of Iran.

Anomalies in Iran will encompass most of the western region of the country, reaching east around the Caspian Coast and along the Turkmen border, and south to the Gulf of Oman, though deficits will trace the northeastern coast of the Persian Gulf. Areas with a forecast of exceptional surplus include northern Syria; around Mosul, Iraq; northeastern Iran; and southern Iran reaching inland from the Strait of Hormuz. The forecast for Iraq west of the Euphrates indicates moderate deficits in the northwest and south and mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur.

On the Arabian Peninsula, a patchwork of deficits or transitional conditions is forecast for much of Saudi Arabia with severe deficits in central Riyadh Province and exceptional deficits in the nation’s southeast corner. Deficits will be also be intense in the eastern half of United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected in southwestern Saudi Arabia and much of Yemen though intense deficits are expected in southwestern Yemen near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Turkey can expect primarily mild deficits in its western half and pockets of surplus in the east. Intense deficits are forecast in Georgia north of Tbilisi.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink as transitions begin. Conditions in Syria will be transitional with some surpluses persisting in the north. Surpluses will persist in Iraq east of the Euphrates, across northwestern Iran and around the Caspian Coast. Anomalies will remain exceptional around Mosul and extreme to exceptional around Tehran. Deficits will emerge in the vast bulk of central Iraq, leaving areas of former surplus in transition, but surpluses will persist in pockets of Isfahan, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces.

The forecast for the Arabian Peninsula is complicated. Deficits will emerge in Saudi Arabia but much of the nation will be in transition. Deficits will moderate in the United Arab Emirates, and moderate deficits will emerge in Qatar. Yemen will begin transitioning from surplus, with moderate deficits emerging in the west. In Oman, deficits will shrink and downgrade in the east and emerge in the west. Deficits are forecast for Georgia and pockets of central and western Turkey, while transitions are forecast in southeastern Turkey.

From October through December, widespread transitional conditions will resolve into normalcy or mild to moderate deficit in much of Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, and in the bulk of central Iran. However, deficits will be exceptional in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will increase in northern Syria, persist with intensity around Mosul, shrink and downgrade somewhat in northwestern Iran, and re-emerge in the northeast. Surpluses are also expected to re-emerge along the border of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman, and will be exceptional. Deficits in Georgia will moderate.

In the final quarter – January through March 2021 – deficits will downgrade in southern Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in northern Syria and around Mosul, continue to shrink in northwestern Iran, and continue to re-emerge in northeastern Iran. Surpluses will also re-emerge near the Strait of Hormuz.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Since the beginning of the year, the United Arab Emirates has conducted over 200 cloud-seeding operations to create precipitation in the water-scarce Emirates.

The Gulf Cooperative Council, an alliance of six Middle Eastern nations including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, estimates that, to meet projected demand for water in 2050 for an estimated 64 million people the group will need to increase capacity for collection and storage by 77 percent. Four of GCC’s six member states are characterized by the World Resources Institute as facing “extremely high baseline water stress.”

As of mid-June, rainfall in Iran for the water year beginning last September is down by 8 percent, translating to a drop of 4 percent in water storage in the nation’s dams. Widespread flooding followed heavy rains in 2019, giving a boost to hydroelectric production after nearly a decade of drought. Iran’s energy minister says this year the country will be relying more on fossil fuels to meet electricity needs.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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