The forecast through October indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist in the region from southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran and along the southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Some areas of previous surplus will begin to transition as deficits emerge. Intense deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, moderate to severe deficits in Georgia, and primarily moderate deficits in pockets of western Turkey including Ankara.
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The forecast through September indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran and along the southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Surpluses will remain intense, but conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast as transitions occur. Deficits are forecast for the southern Arabian Peninsula and will be especially intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that, though some areas will begin to transition out of water surplus, widespread surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern and eastern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Deficits will increase in central Turkey and on the Arabian Peninsula and will include exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through July indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Tigris River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Widespread, intense deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for Kuwait, southern Iraq, and west of the Euphrates. Severe deficits will emerge in central Iran’s Yazd Province.
The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the coast. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain widespread. Central and northern Turkey will transition from surplus to moderate deficit.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably, though an intense pocket will persist around Kuwait and deficits will be severe in Yemen. Surpluses will downgrade overall but exceptional surpluses are forecast for northern Syria; near Mosul, Iraq; along Iran’s Caspian Sea coast northeast of Tehran; and in Khuzestan, Iran.
The forecast through April indicates water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and southern Iran, and surpluses from Turkey through western Iran. Exceptional deficits will increase in western Oman, downgrade somewhat in Yemen, and moderate to severe deficits are expected in much of Saudi Arabia. Deficits will downgrade in United Arab Emirates and moderate deficits will emerge in Qatar.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade through February though intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s western and eastern thirds and severe deficits in Saudi Arabia’s large south-central region of Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in western Iran north of the Red Sea and across the border into Iraq and will remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast along Iran’s western Caspian Sea coast; north of Kirkuk, Iraq; and in eastern Turkey.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.