The forecast through August indicates that exceptional water deficits in the northern Arabian Peninsula will shrink but deficits overall in the Peninsula will be widespread. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Lebanon, Israel, and West Bank. Deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout Turkey and Syria, though deficits in western Turkey will downgrade from exceptional. In southern Iran deficits will become more severe, reaching exceptional intensity in Kerman and neighboring provinces.
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Over the next few months exceptional water deficits will diminish overall in the region but persist in southern Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits will spread in Turkey, and intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. After July, deficits in Turkey will moderate overall, but deficits of varying severity are forecast for many parts of the region and are expected to be especially intense in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, southern Iran, and West Bank.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink considerably through June, but deficits will increase overall as Turkey transitions from surplus to deficit and severe deficits emerge in Yemen and western Oman. Exceptional deficits will persist in southeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, northern Saudi Arabia, and along the Persian Gulf in Iran. Intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. In Iran deficits will downgrade but remain widespread. After June, deficits in Lebanon and West Bank will upgrade to exceptional.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink, though deficits in the region will increase overall, emerging in Turkey, Yemen, and Oman. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Iraq. Deficits will remain widespread in the bulk of Iran east of Tehran, with extreme conditions in southern Kerman Province. After May, deficits will emerge in eastern Turkey, joining those in the rest of the country, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are expected to moderate considerably through April, though deficits reaching extreme intensity are forecast in southeastern Iran. After April, deficits will increase overall in extent and severity, and are expected to be especially intense in Iran from the Persian Gulf to the Afghan border, and in southern Iraq near Basrah. Moderate deficits will emerge in Azerbaijan.
Widespread exceptional deficits are expected to moderate considerably through March, but intense deficits will continue to emerge in southeastern Turkey, Syria, Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast throughout Iran. Deficits in Qatar, UAE, and Yemen will downgrade to primarily moderate. After March, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to resume prior intensity and deficits will emerge throughout Turkey and in nearby Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, completing a picture of deficits blanketing the entire Middle East.
Widespread exceptional deficits observed in the prior three months are expected to moderate considerably through February, though extreme deficits are in the forecast for Lebanon and Israel. Deficits of slightly lesser intensity, but still severe, are forecast for southeastern Turkey, Syria, pockets throughout Iraq, central Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, and southwestern Yemen. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast nearly everywhere else. After February, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to ratchet up in intensity, and moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Turkey.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear in the near-term leaving primarily moderate to severe deficits across the region. Severe deficits are forecast November through January along stretches of the Euphrates River, and deficits of greater intensity are expected along Turkey’s northern coast and in southwestern and southeastern Yemen. Overall, water deficits will diminish slightly in extent and intensity from February through April.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.
The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula though deficits will continue to emerge, reaching south into much of Yemen and southern Oman. Deficits in the Levant will downgrade to moderate. Exceptional deficits in Iraq west of the Euphrates are expected to become slightly less intense except in the south. Deficits will emerge throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of Iran. After November exceptional deficits are forecast to nearly disappear though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge.