Africa: Water surplus will persist in the Sahel

Africa: Water surplus will persist in the Sahel

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2021 indicates widespread, intense water deficits across North Africa including many areas with exceptional anomalies. Mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast as transitions occur (pink/purple).

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast across the Sahel, reaching into northern Nigeria where anomalies will be exceptional and southern Sudan where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional. In the Horn of Africa, surpluses will be exceptional in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia. Deficits are forecast from eastern Eritrea into western Somaliland.

West Africa can expect surpluses in Senegal, Guinea Bissau, and from eastern Guinea into northwestern Côte D’Ivoire, but deficits are forecast in Sierra Leone and in Nigeria’s eastern Middle Belt States. Deficits are also forecast surrounding Cameroon’s northern city of Maroua, and from south central Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea and Gabon and will include intense anomalies. In Central African Republic, exceptional surpluses will dominate the area around the capital city of Bangui while exceptional deficits are expected in the nation’s southeast leading well into Democratic Republic of the Congo, downgrading somewhat through the northern Congo River Basin.

In East Africa, surpluses are forecast from southern Ethiopia through the border region of western Kenya and Uganda, and in large pockets of central Tanzania.

Much of southern Africa will see nearly normal water conditions. However, deficits are forecast for Angola’s northwestern and southwestern corners, a large pocket in north-central Mozambique, pockets in central Madagascar, and northern Lesotho. Surpluses are forecast in South Africa’s southwest corner fanning inland from Cape Town.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving mild deficits or mixed conditions in North Africa and nearly normal conditions in many regions of the south. Some areas of exceptional deficit are expected to persist in the western Sahara Desert, south-central Cameroon, and west of Khartoum, Sudan; and will increase in Nigeria’s eastern Middle Belt States. Moderate deficits are expected in Sierra Leone, but deficits of greater intensity will emerge through central Ghana, Togo, and Benin.

Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in a vast path across the Sahel along with conditions of both surplus and deficit (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Surpluses will be widespread in Chad and southern Sudan. From eastern Guinea into Côte D’Ivoire, surpluses will intensify, moderating as they reach south to the coast. Surpluses will also moderate in western Central African Republic and in East Africa, where anomalies will shrink. In Somalia’s Nugaal region, intense surpluses will persist but transitions are also forecast.

Deficits will remain exceptional in southern Cameroon but will moderate in Gabon and in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In Madagascar, surpluses will retreat, and moderate to extreme deficits will emerge in the east-central region. In southern Africa, surpluses will persist near Cape Town, South Africa and a few pockets west of Lesotho. Some moderate surpluses will emerge in northeastern Botswana.

From February through April 2021, deficits in North Africa will continue to downgrade becoming mild overall with pockets of intense deficit in east-central Algeria and central Sudan. Surpluses will persist in the Sahel, downgrading slightly, and transitional areas are also forecast. Exceptional surpluses will persist from eastern Guinea into Côte D’Ivoire and will re-emerge from transitional conditions in Nugaal, Somalia. Deficits will persist in aforementioned areas of Nigeria, Cameroon, and DRC, but will shrink and downgrade. Moderate surpluses are expected in western Central African Republic; pockets of East Africa; the border region joining Angola, Namibia, and Botswana; and in South Africa near Cape Town and west of Johannesburg.

The forecast for the final quarter – May through July 2021 – indicates that deficits will increase in the north, primarily moderate but intense in the northeast. Surpluses will shrink in the Sahel, persist in northern Somalia and pockets of Tanzania, and will emerge in the border region of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding in Nigeria during October and early November has affected hundred of thousands of people according to reports released by the UN’s World Food Programme. Since September, 150 people have died. The European Union has pledged €80,000 (USD $106,316) to assist flood victims in five states.

In Chad’s capital city of N’Djamena, flooding has displaced 11,500 people since late October. This year’s intense rainy season has increased water levels in Lac Province, threatening populations already displaced by conflict in the region from Boko Haram.

Ongoing drought in Morocco for the past several years is straining agricultural access as water is diverted from irrigation to insure adequate drinking water supply for the country’s residents. At the end of October, reservoirs in the nation were down 46 percent from a year ago. Restricted irrigation has affected citrus plantations, reducing the quality and size of the fruit. Morocco’s 2020 cereal harvest was 50 percent less than 2019, resulting in millions of dollars in imports to alleviate shortfalls.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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