Middle East: Intense water deficits will persist in Yemen & Oman

Middle East: Intense water deficits will persist in Yemen & Oman

21 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending October indicates widespread, intense water deficits covering much of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman.

Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Iraq, intense surpluses in northern Iraq, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) west of the Euphrates River as transitions occur.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast from central Syria to the north, moderating across the border into Turkey. Deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast in many pockets of Turkey, and deficits are also forecast in Georgia.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected along Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast, downgrading or transitioning along the Turkmenistan border. Some large blocks of surplus are forecast in southern Iranian provinces along the Persian Gulf and will be exceptional around the Strait of Hormuz. Farther north, moderate surpluses are expected across the central Iraq-Iran border.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, though many areas of surplus are forecast. Exceptional surpluses are expected in central and northern Syria, moderating across the border into Turkey. Some areas of surplus are also forecast along Turkey’s eastern Black Sea Coast. Exceptional surpluses will persist around Mosul, Iraq, and surpluses will persist in northern Iran near Lake Urmia. Moderate to exceptional surpluses will persist along Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast but will shrink somewhat along the border with Turkmenistan. A large block of exceptional surplus will persist in southern Iran around the Strait of Hormuz connecting to persistent moderate to extreme surpluses in Fars Province along the Persian Gulf. Surpluses are also forecast in Iranian provinces near Iraq just north of the Persian Gulf. Generally moderate surpluses are expected in Israel and West Bank.

Deficits are forecast on the Arabian Peninsula in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and Qatar. Deficits will be exceptional from eastern Yemen into western Oman, and primarily severe to extreme in southern Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia.

From May through July, surpluses will continue to shrink persisting primarily from northern Syria into Turkey, around Mosul, along Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast, and in southern Iran, though several of these regions will experience conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Deficits will downgrade significantly in Yemen and Oman, becoming mild, but deficits will increase and intensify in Saudi Arabia and intense deficits will emerge in southern Iraq and eastern United Arab Emirates. Moderate deficits are expected to emerge in central Iran.

In the final quarter – August through October – exceptional deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, and moderate to severe deficits in Iran. Exceptional surpluses will persist surrounding Mosul, Iraq.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in northern Syria produced flooding in refugee camps including the Ein Al-Dair camp, destroying 500 tents and exacerbating conditions in the over-crowded settlements. Flash flooding closed a school in Idlib where water levels passed 30 centimeters (11 inches).

Residents of Baghdad, Iraq awoke in mid-February to rare snowfall, only the second time in a century and the first time many had ever seen it.

Torrential mid-January rainfall caused flooding in Iran’s southern province of Sistan and Baluchistan on the heels of mid-December flooding in the Persian Gulf provinces. Two deaths were reported in the January event and 877 villages lost electricity, 875 routes were blocked, 245 irrigation canals damaged as well as homes and other infrastructure. January 2020 rainfall in Sistan and Baluchistan was 26 time more than January 2019.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.