Europe: Intense water deficits in Norway & Sweden

Europe: Intense water deficits in Norway & Sweden

18 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia, Latvia, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed. Intense deficits are also forecast in Finnish Lapland, Västerbotten County in Sweden, and central Norway, while moderate deficits are expected in Lithuania, Belarus, and along Ukraine’s western border.

Intense surpluses are forecast from Murmansk, Russia into Arctic Norway and in pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia. In European Russia, surpluses are expected in the Vychegda Lowland in the north and the Don, Desna, and Volga River regions south of Moscow. Anomalies will be intense in the Vychedga Lowland and Don Basin. Deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River area of northern Russia.

Surpluses will be widespread in Czech Republic and northern and eastern Romania and are also expected in pockets of Ukraine including Zhytomyr Oblast. Primarily moderate pockets are forecast in northern France, northern Belgium, eastern Switzerland into Austria, and southern Germany. Ireland, too, can expect moderate surpluses, and scattered, isolated pockets are forecast in England, Wales, and the Netherlands.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, Italy, and deficits of varying intensity in the Piedmont region, a pocket south of Naples, and Sicily and Sardinia. Several regions in the Balkans will experience deficits including Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Greece’s Central Macedonia region and Peloponnese Peninsula. Anomalies will be severe in Bosnia and Herzegovina and extreme in Peloponnese. Deficits are forecast from southern France into Spain, and from Madrid past Seville and into Portugal’s southern tip. Anomalies will be exceptional near Seville and severe north of Barcelona. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include southern Belgium, Hungary, and pockets in northern Germany and northwestern Poland.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through October indicates that deficits and surpluses will shrink and downgrade, but anomalies are expected in many regions. Intense deficits will persist in Finnish Lapland, the Dalälven River Watershed and Västerbotten County in Sweden, and central Norway and the southern fjords. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in the Baltics, northern Belarus, and near Ukraine’s western border. Surpluses will persist from Murmansk, Russia into Arctic Norway, and pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia. Deficits will remain intense in Russia’s Mezen River Basin while intense surpluses persist in the Vychegda Lowland. Surpluses will also persist in the Don, Desna, and Volga River regions in the south.

Deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast for north-central Germany, France’s southern half, Geneva, the Piedmont region in Italy, and south to Perugia. In the Balkans, moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and pockets elsewhere in the region. Surpluses are forecast for East Anglia and Devon in England; central Belgium into France; Luxembourg and the Mosul and Rhine Rivers in Germany; and western Czech Republic. Ukraine can expect surpluses from Zhytomyr Oblast trailing south and in the east near the Dnieper Reservoir. Surpluses are also forecast in Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and the Pindus Mountains in Greece.

From November 2021 through January 2022, small pockets of intense deficit will linger in Lapland and Sweden and surpluses in the far north. Moderate deficits will persist in southwestern France. Surpluses are forecast in pockets from northern France through Czech Republic, near the Dnieper Reservoir, and the Don River region.

The forecast for February through April 2022 includes surpluses in southern Norway, southwestern Russia, pockets of Ireland and the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium, Switzerland, western Austria, and central Czech Republic. Deficits will persist in pockets of the Nordic nations.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Fueled by high temperatures and dry conditions, devastating wildfires have struck multiple regions in Europe.

Greece deployed army personnel to battle its raging blazes including one north of Athens, and enlisted help from many nations including France, Egypt, Switzerland, and Spain. On the island of Evia east of Athens, residents and tourists escaped on ferry boats. The fires have claimed three lives and 110,000 hectares of land. The federal government has budgeted 500 million Euro (USD $585 million) for relief and reforestation.

Thousands were evacuated as fire raced through the French Riviera 40 kilometers (24 miles) inland from Saint-Tropez, forcing homeowners, campers, and vacationers to flee during the height of the tourist season. Two deaths were reported.

As heat records were being broken in Spain, 800 people were evacuated in separate fires affecting the central province of Ávila and Valencia in the east.

Record summer heat left northwestern Finland vulnerable as the worst fire in 50 years in the region blazed through a remote river valley.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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