Middle East: Widespread deficit in Iran, surplus in W Turkey

Middle East: Widespread deficit in Iran, surplus in W Turkey

24 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates widespread deficits throughout most countries within the region, with the most intense anomalies occurring throughout Iran. Notable surplus is expected in portions of Turkey. 

These countries should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Yemen, throughout most central areas of the country, as well as western and southern coastal regions of the Abyan and Al Hudaydah governorates. 

  • Oman, with pockets across western regions, as well as eastern coastal regions, of the Al Wusta Governorate.

  • Eastern Iran, near the city of Mashhad and throughout the Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

  • Eastern Turkey, appearing east of Van Lake and crossing into western Iran, near the city of Khoy. 

Extreme to exceptional surplus is anticipated in the following regions: 

  • Western Turkey, throughout much of the Aegean region and western areas of Central Anatolia. Similar surplus is expected in the central Black Sea Region, near the city of Çorum.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 indicates that exceptional deficits will arise in Saudi Arabia throughout the Riyadh province, as well as in southern Iraq, throughout the Al Muthanna Governorate. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in northeastern coastal regions of Turkey, near the city of Rize. Deficits in Iran are expected to persist but lessen in scope, only persisting in areas within the Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Surplus in western Turkey is expected to broaden, expanding further into the Aegean, Central Anatolia, and western Mediterranean regions. 

From November 2023 through January 2024 expects surplus in western Turkey to dissipate, and moderate surpluses to emerge in eastern regions of the country. Small areas of intense deficits are expected in northwestern and northeastern Iran, as well as in Yemen. Much of central to southern Oman can expect exceptional deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – anticipates that most surplus in northern regions of the Middle East will mostly vanish, with exceptional deficits continuing in central Yemen and Oman. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Iraq, four consecutive years of drought have drastically shrunken Lake Habbaniyah. Locals have reported extremely dry conditions, as well as temperatures nearly 120 degrees Fahrenheit. “The last two years, there was some activity, but now there’s no more water,” one local reported. Shorelines at Habbaniyah have also receded over several dozen meters. The United Nations ranks water-stressed Iraq as one of five countries most impacted by climate change. 

In Iran, the city of Tabriz is experiencing a prolonged shortage of potable water, which has led to widespread public frustration as the country endures an intense heat wave. During the first week of August, the heat wave was so intense that it forced the government to declare two days of holiday. Growing dissent was represented in a recent article by local news outlet Nasr, which voiced major concern over the long-term disruption of water supplies during many other additional compounding issues, such as drought, deteriorating living conditions, and inflation.

In Turkey, residents of Istanbul have been asked to reduce their water consumption as major cities endure a drought crisis and amid high temperatures. On August 16th, Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu urged 16 million residents to save "every precious water drop flowing from the tap". His statement followed days after the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration reported data showing that the city's dams were around 33 percent full as of mid-August, which is the lowest rate the city has seen in nine years. The water scarcity has been attributed in part to extreme temperatures, with some regions reaching a record high of 49.5 degrees Celsius, coupled with high humidity.

Additionally, Turkey has suspended the export of olive oil until the harvest season in November. The motion to suspend olive oil exports is in response to an extreme drought that has hit Europe, which has led to increased demand for Turkish products and a surge in the domestic price of olive oil. According to a statement issued by the Turkish Trade Ministry, producer and market prices have seen an increase of over 100 percent since June. The International Olive Council reported that olive oil production in Spain and Italy, the world's major producers, decreased by 20 percent in the 2022-23 season, with Turkey’s increasing by 62 percent during the same period.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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