Europe: Surpluses expected in Continental Europe, UK, and Ireland

Europe: surpluses expected in Continental Europe, UK, and Ireland

26 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates widespread surpluses throughout much of the United Kingdom and Ireland as well as Continental Europe. Deficits are expected in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of October 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of July 2024.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Much of central to eastern Norway, which spread further east into southern Sweden and throughout most of Finland.

  • Netherlands and Belgium, widespread throughout both countries, spreading further into western Germany.

  • Regions along the southern border of Austria, as well as southern Poland and western areas of the Czech Republic.

  • Northwestern Spain, throughout the community of Galicia.

  • Throughout most of the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions:

  • Western Ukraine, in areas west of the city of Kyiv.

  • Eastern regions of the Balkans, particularly eastern Bulgaria, Moldova, and throughout most of Romania.

  • North-central Poland, throughout the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship.

  • Northeastern Belarus, in areas near the city of Viciebsk.

  • Northwestern Spain, in coastal areas of the Catalonia region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 indicates that most intense deficits in eastern Europe will dissipate, with near-normal conditions emerging in western Ukraine, Belarus, and Bulgaria. Eastern Ukraine can expect widespread exceptional surpluses to emerge, as well as areas in southwestern Poland, eastern to northeastern Czech Republic, and throughout Slovakia. Further west, similarly intense surpluses will emerge in western and southern Germany, continuing into the Netherlands, and Belgium. Moderate to severe surplus is expected in much of France, central to eastern Germany, central Spain, and in central to southern regions of the United Kingdom. In Spain, deficits are expected to expand throughout the Catalonia region of northeastern Spain. 

From March through May 2024, much of Continental Europe can expect near-normal to moderate surplus conditions across most of the region. The most intense surpluses are expected to occur in Switzerland and western Austria, as well as central Sweden and southern Finland. Further south, the Catalonia region of Spain is expected to observe extreme to exceptional deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions to continue throughout most of the region, though southern coastal regions of Spain will experience extreme to exceptional deficits. Further north, Spain’s Catalonia region can anticipate deficits to continue, but will downgrade to moderate to severe intensity.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Spain’s Andalusia region has experienced severe drought for over 93 months and is currently experiencing its worst drought since 1961. This drought heavily impacts the local agricultural sector, placing Andalusian farmers and livestock breeders in need of assistance, as many confirm that agricultural crop production will be 50% lower than last year’s harvest. The Minister of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development of the Regional Government of Andalusia, Carmen Crespo, recently requested urgent governmental assistance to address the severe drought.

A research team from the Max Planck Institute for Weather Sciences recently reported that severe major droughts, of which are expected to last over five years, will hit Europe earlier than the end of this century, which is contrary to scientists’ previous expectations. Researchers ran 100 simulations from the institute's climate model, which focuses on extreme droughts and climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. The study found that simultaneous instances of heatwaves and drought may occur nearly every two years in Europe from 2050 to 2075.

Unseasonably warm temperatures and increased rainfall have triggered landslides and flood warnings across Europe, specifically In Switzerland, northern Italy, and France. These conditions have also raised alerts for avalanches across the Alps. The Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology raised the avalanche risk in the ski resort region of the southern mountains to the red “high danger” level on December 12th. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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