Africa: Deficits persist in N, S Africa

Africa: Deficits persist in N, S Africa

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to dissipate central regions of the country, but persist in Algeria, Mali, Mauritania, and nearby western coastal regions. Regions of southeastern Africa are expected to observe surpluses of varying intensity, while southern countries such as South Africa, Namibia, and Zimbabwe should expect exceptional deficits to emerge. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Algeria, widespread throughout the country. Deficits continue into northern Mali and across the majority of central Mauritania, into western coastal regions of Morocco and Western Sahara. 

  • Western and southeastern Libya, throughout western portions of the Nalut and Ghat districts. Extreme deficits will appear in the Kufra District, continuing into northwestern Sudan, and become widespread across most coastal regions of Egypt along the Mediterranean and Red Seas. 

  • Southeastern Chad, widespread across the Salamat region. 

  • Central to northern Namibia, continuing throughout much of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and central to eastern Zambia. 

  • Madagascar, with exceptional deficits occurring along most western coastal regions of the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southern Ethiopia, covering most regions south of the Yabelo Wildlife Sanctuary, into most of Kenya and southern Somalia.

  • Tanzania, widespread throughout much of the country. 

  • Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, throughout eastern regions of the Ituri province, moving east into the majority of Uganda. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates deficits to emerge in Morocco and Western Sahara, as well as in a band across northern portions of Ivory Coast into Nigeria, southwestern Chad, Central African Republic, southern Sudan, and northern Ethiopia. Northernmost regions of the Horn of Africa are expected to observe exceptional deficits. Central countries are expected to observe severe to extreme surplus, with the highest concentrations appearing in Cameroon, Gabon, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Tanzania, and throughout most southern regions of the Horn of Africa. 

From March through May 2024, surpluses in eastern Africa are expected to downgrade in size but persist, particularly in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. Exceptional anomalies are expected to downgrade in size but continue in central Nigeria, northeastern Niger, southeastern Chad, and central regions of Central Africa Republic. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – a band of severe to extreme surplus is expected to emerge across Burkina Faso, and is expected to continue east into northern Nigeria, southern Chad, southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Kenya. These surpluses are expected to expand further into much of Tanzania, Ethiopia, and northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Further north, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in northern Mali, central Algeria, and west-central Libya.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Over 47 deaths and 85 injuries were reported in northern Tanzania due to flooding-induced landslides on December 2nd. East Africa is particularly vulnerable to flooding due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, which increases temperatures worldwide, as well as bringing drought to some areas and heavy rains to others. This year, rainfall and flooding stemming from El Nino has displaced over a million people in Somalia and killed hundreds. Earlier this year in May, similar conditions killed at least 130 people in Rwanda. 

In Zimbabwe, drought conditions worsened by El Nino recently killed at least 100 elephants in Hwange National Park. Experts are concerned that more could die as drought and heightened temperatures are expected to continue in the country, especially in regions near Hwange National Park. "El Nino is making an already dire situation worse," said Tinashe Farawo, spokesman for the Zimbabwe National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority.

The state-owned Algerian Energy Company (AEC) recently released a portion of its roadmap for water supply management for the next two years, which includes construction of mobile desalination plants placed in villages across the country. The purpose of this project is for Algeria to supply 60% of its drinking water needs from seawater desalination by 2030. To achieve this, each plant will have a production capacity of 300,000 m3 of fresh water per day, supplying an overall capacity of 1.5 million m3 for all the plants. Due to the country’s climate change induced drought, the Word Resources Institute (WRI) has ranked Algeria as the 29th country in the world most affected by drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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