ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2025

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST May 2025

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2025 and running through January 2026 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 15, 2025 (pdf).

United States: Deficits of varying intensity will continue in portions of the Midwest until October 2025.

Canada: Pockets of exceptional deficits will persist in regions of the Prairie Provinces until January 2026 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Mexico City until January 2026 or longer.

South America: Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in central Brazil until October 2025.

Europe: Severe to exceptional deficits will be widespread throughout much of central and eastern Europe until October 2025.  

Africa: Surpluses in the Sahel are expected to continue until January 2026 or longer.

Middle East: Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in the Levant, Iraq, and Iran until October 2025.

Central Asia and Russia: Regions of Buryatia will observe exceptional deficits until July 2025, while regions of European Russia will observe exceptional deficits until October 2025.

South Asia: Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to spread through much of India until January 2026 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea will observe extreme to exceptional surpluses until October 2025.

East Asia: Exceptional deficits will persist in some regions of northwestern China and the Yangtze River Basin until July 2025.

Australia & New Zealand: Queensland is expected to experience widespread severe to extreme surpluses until October 2025.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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