Europe: Exceptional deficits continue throughout central, E Europe

Europe: Exceptional deficits continue throughout central, E Europe

20 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout central and eastern Europe. Surpluses will resolve in most of western Europe, but will remain in Spain, Portugal, and Norway. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Poland, primarily spreading throughout the central and eastern portions of the country. These deficits continue across most of Belarus and the Baltics. 

  • Ukraine, with exceptional deficits occurring across northwestern, and eastern regions of the country, as well as in regions east of the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir. These anomalies continue south into southern coastal regions of the Kherson Oblast. 

  • Pockets of eastern Slovakia, northeastern to central Hungary, eastern Germany, and western Czechia. Northwestern Romania should also anticipate exceptional deficits. 

  • Finland, throughout regions near Lake Pielinen, as well as areas south of Malaran Lake in Sweden.

  • Belgium, with severe deficits appearing in western areas of the country, as well as in eastern coastal regions of the United Kingdom. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Spain, with exceptional surpluses occurring in areas west of Madrid. 

  • Central to southern Portugal. 

  • Northern Norway, throughout the counties of Nordland and Troms, as well as areas along the northern border of Sweden.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur throughout much of central and eastern Europe, with the most intense anomalies affecting northwestern and eastern Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, Poland, and central to eastern Germany. Further north, southern and central regions of Sweden can expect widespread exceptional deficits, as well as central and northern areas of the United Kingdom. Exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in the northernmost counties of Norway and Sweden. Severe to extreme surpluses will be widespread in Spain and central to southern Portugal. 

From August through October 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to remain in regions of eastern Poland, northwestern, northern, and eastern Ukraine, and much of Belarus. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in southeastern Sweden. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in much of central and eastern Europe. Severe to extreme surpluses is expected to be widespread in Spain and central to southern Portugal. 

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – indicates that pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will remain in southern Belarus and along the northwestern border of Ukraine. Severe deficits may persist in southeastern regions of Sweden near Kalmar County.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As exceptional drought continues to affect Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association recently warned that if dry conditions continue, wheat crop yields for the 2025/2026 season are expected to decrease by ten to fifteen percent. “If the drought in Ukraine persists in the first half of May, we will have to lower our forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine for 2025/26 MY by 10-15% from the current expectations of 22.5 million tons,” said Mykola Gorbachev, the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service predicts that wheat harvests will be 23 percent below last year’s, making it the lowest yields since 2013. 

Northern Europe is experiencing an unusually dry spring, with Belgium and the United Kingdom predicted to experience their driest spring in over 100 years due to persistent high-pressure systems suppressing rainfall. Belgium has received four times less rain than typical, and England saw its driest February to April period since 1956. Other European countries experiencing intense drought include northern Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Denmark, and southern Scandinavia. Droughts in these areas are expected to negatively impact local agriculture operations, raising serious concerns in Europe's food markets.

Regions of Britain face a historic wildfire crisis as it experiences its driest spring in almost 70 years. Wildfires have spread across Scotland, Wales, and England, due to extremely dry conditions and diminished river levels. In England, one fire in Dartmoor that burned over 1,200 acres. So far, 2025 has seen more land burned by April than any full year in the past decade. The English government recently convened the National Drought Group to prepare for potential water shortages as reservoir levels dwindle and dry weather continues.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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