Canada: Deficits remain in Northern Territories, Prairie Provinces

27 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that pockets of exceptional deficits will remain in portions of Canada, primarily in the Prairie Provinces and the Northern Territories. Surpluses are expected in much of Nunavut.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern British Columbia, in the Northern Rockies region, continuing east into northwestern Alberta.
Saskatchewan, in regions southwest of Reindeer Lake, as well as central to western areas of the Boreal Forest region.
Northern coastal regions of Ontario, throughout areas near Polar Bear Provincial Park.
Northwest Territories, in regions south of Great Bear Lake and within portions of the Dehcho Region. Further north, exceptional deficits are expected in portions of the Inuvik Region. Nunavut, in western areas of the Kitikmeot Region.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Nunavut, in north-central coastal regions of the Kitikmeot Region.
Northwest Territories, in regions northeast of Great Slave Lake.
Northern Saskatchewan, near Lake Athabasca.
Regions along the borders of southern Quebec and southeastern Ontario.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in British Columbia’s Northern Rockies region, northwestern Alberta, and western areas of Saskatchewan’s Boreal Forest region. In Manitoba, regions northeast of Lake Winnipeg can expect exceptional deficits, as well as regions along the northern coast of Ontario bordering the Hudson Bay. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region and in regions south of Great Bear Lake. Pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected in eastern Newfoundland. Severe to exceptional surpluses are predicted to occur in regions east of Great Slave Lake, central and northern Nunavut, and northern coastal portions of Baffin Island.

From August through October 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to diminish in size, but remain present in portions of British Columbia’s North Rockies region, northwestern Alberta, and western portions of Saskatchewan’s Boreal Forest region. Further north, pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in regions near Great Bear Lake and Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region. Northeastern areas of Quebec’s Rivière-Koksoak territory can expect severe to extreme deficits. Much of central to northern areas of the Qikiqtaaluk Region can expect severe to extreme surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – indicates that pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta, as well as western portions of Saskatchewan’s Boreal Forest region. Severe to exceptional deficits are also expected in northwestern to central areas of Northwest Territories, in regions near Great Bear Lake. Southern regions of Victoria Island may experience severe to extreme deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses may occur in eastern coastal regions of Baffin Island.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times

IMPACTS
B.C. Hydro faces major challenges as drought increases its reliance on electricity imports while the demand for electricity is expected to increase by 15% by 2030. In an application to the B.C. Utilities Commission, B.C. Hydro representatives said "persistent drought conditions and low snowpack since the fall of 2022" had required overbudget electricity import costs amounting to $1.5 billion. Barry Penner, who served as B.C.'s environment minister between 2005 and 2010, cited skepticism about B.C. Hydro’s preparedness to meet increasing demands. "We're importing electricity on a net basis, meaning, yes, there are still brief periods where we're selling electricity, but we're importing a lot more than we're selling, " said Penner.

Flooding forced full-scale evacuations and cut off access to airports in Kashechewan First Nation, a remote Cree community in northern coastal Ontario. Authorities said the rising waters of the Albany River are dangerously close to overflowing and endangering the community of 2,000 people, a situation not seen since the area’s catastrophic flooding in 2006. Residents with children were told to gather at a local baseball diamond to evacuate to Fort Albany First Nation.

A study conducted at the University of Alberta found that farmers that allow cattle to graze grasslands too early or heavily significantly worsen the impact of drought in the area. Early or overgrazing weakens grasslands by reducing root biomass, which is essential for plant resilience during drought. “Roots are important for the uptake of water by a plant and other important nutrients for plant growth,” said Cameron Carlyle, associate professor of rangeland ecology in the university’s agriculture faculty.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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