Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits spread throughout central Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits spread throughout central Mexico

24 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that exceptional deficits will resolve in northwestern Mexico, but emerge in much of central Mexico. Small portions of Central America should expect moderate to severe surpluses. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Central Mexico, with exceptional deficits spreading throughout the state of Zacatecas, continuing southeast into regions of San Luis Potosi, Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Mexico City. 

  • Small portions of northwestern Mexico, with severe deficits appearing in areas of Sonora. 

  • Isolated portions of northern and southern Baja California, as well as in the municipality of La Paz in Baja California Sur. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Nicaragua, in regions east of Lake Nicaragua.  

  • Panama, throughout most western and central regions of the country. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will spread throughout southern Baja California and Baja California Sur, as well as small portions of western coastal Sonora and regions near Mexico City. Small pockets of severe surpluses are expected in northeastern Guatemala and southern to eastern Panama. 

From August through October 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to spread south from Zacatacas to regions near Mexico City. Moderate deficits are anticipated in portions of southeastern Mexico near the city of Villahermosa, which continue into central Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in regions east of Lake Nicaragua and in western to central Panama.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – indicates that severe to exceptional deficits in central Mexico will decrease in size but remain in areas near Mexico City. Some moderate deficits may occur in north-central Honduras. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As of late April 2025, over 46% of Mexico is experiencing drought. Though this reflects an improvement from 2024, when over 70% of Mexico experienced drought, the prolonged dry season has severely damaged agricultural productivity and limited water resources. The drought has also increased the amount of heat-related deaths, as 79% of these fatalities of which have occurred since 2014 have happened in just the last four years. The state of Chihuahua is particularly affected, as 100% of the state is gripped by extreme or exceptional drought. 

 A new study revealed that cacti in the Sonoran desert, including the native species saguaro, are continuously suffering from the effects of drought and heatwaves. Researchers from Next Generation Sonoran Desert Researchers (NGen) found that recent extreme heat events, like those which occurred in 2020 to 2021, caused severe stress to over 1,000 cacti, effectively damaging their photosynthetic tissue – damage comparable to extreme sunburn. 

As recent droughts have threatened the Panama Canal, the Panama Canal Authority has proposed to build a new reservoir. Authorities plan to construct a $1.6 billion artificial lake project to increase resilience for its water supplies. However, if implemented, the project is expected to displace thousands of residents living near the Indio River, all of whom depend on the river for agriculture and daily use. Though the reservoir is positioned as critical climate adaptation infrastructure, locals argue it would destroy their homes and livelihoods. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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