East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin

28 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northwestern China, throughout central and eastern Xinjiang. These deficits continue east into western Gansu and western Inner Mongolia.
Southeastern China, throughout the Yangtze River Basin, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the provinces of Anhui, Henan, Hubei, and eastern Sichuan.Southern China, throughout the provinces of Yunnan, and Guangdong.
Southwestern Mongolia, primarily in pockets of the Govi-Altai Aimag region.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Isolated portions of central and northeastern China, with the most intense anomalies appearing near Inner Mongolia’s city of Baotou.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in regions of central to southern Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and eastern Sichuan. Further south, exceptional deficits are also expected in Yunnan and Guangxi. Some pockets of moderate to severe surpluses are expected in southeastern Tibet and in northeastern Inner Mongolia. Small pockets of extreme to exceptional surplus are anticipated in southeastern Qinghai.

From August through October 2025, near-normal conditions are expected in most regions of China. Some regions near central to eastern Gansu and the city of Yinchuan will observe severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions of central Xinjiang and western Tibet may observe extreme to exceptional surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – indicates that severe to extreme deficits may arise throughout the Yangtze River Basin, North and South Korea, and isolated pockets of Xinjiang. Small portions of central to northeastern China can expect severe to extreme surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
China faces a severe wheat crisis as extreme heat and drought affects several Chinese provinces, including Henan, which produces nearly one-third of the nation's wheat. With over 60% of crops in key regions affected and insufficient resources for proper irrigation, the country’s 2025 wheat output is at risk of a significant decrease. Zhai Jianqing, an expert with the National Climate Center, said the drought is taking a toll on wheat fields in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces, especially those lacking irrigation. Since the start of this year, precipitation in the Yellow River Basin has been nearly 30 percent below average, with the middle reaches seeing reductions of 30 to 40 percent. Without major adaptation, China's wheat supply and global markets face escalating volatility.

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) revealed that hydropower, China's second-largest power source, fell 6.5% to 78.6 billion kWh in April. The decrease is due to drought affecting regions of the Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, where much of China's hydropower capacity is located. The China Electricity Council stated in its most recent report that power consumption was expected to grow 6% year-on-year in 2025, nearing 2024's 6.8% growth level.

Researchers at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden revealed a substantial rise in severe consecutive heatwaves and droughts across several regions of Eurasia over the last few decades, with an emphasis on northern China. These compound events are especially destructive, as heat dries the soil and drought prevents it from cooling, intensifying future heatwaves. Using tree ring data dating back to 1741, researchers identified a pattern called the “trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train,” which has dramatically intensified since 2000.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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