Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread throughout Queensland

28 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northern Western Australia, throughout portions of the Kimberley region, with anomalies appearing near the cities of Derby and Broome.
Southern coastal areas of Victoria, spreading across areas of the Great Ocean Road.
Tasmania, widespread throughout much of the island.
New Zealand, with the most intense anomalies appearing in southwestern coastal regions of South Island and western coastal areas of North Island.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Queensland, widespread throughout the state, with anomalies continuing southwest into portions of northeastern South Australia and northwestern New South Wales.
Eastern New South Wales, near the Sydney, and eastern New South Wales.
Northern coastal Northern Territory, occurring in the Gove Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in much of southern Victoria. These anomalies are expected to continue northeast into regions near the Australian Capital Territory. Severe to exceptional deficits will cover much of Tasmania and some western coastal areas of New Zealand’s North Island. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in Queensland, which will expand southwest into areas of the Great Artesian Basin. The Gove Peninsula will observe isolated onsets of exceptional surplus.

From August through October 2025, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist throughout much of Queensland and into portions of the Great Artesian Basin. Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in northern coastal portions of Northern Territory, in the Gove Peninsula. Isolated exceptional deficits are expected in central Tasmania. Isolated regions near the Drysdale River National Park will also observe exceptional deficits.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – predicts that surpluses throughout Queensland will mostly diminish, with isolated moderate to severe anomalies remaining in some portions of the state. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand throughout southeastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, and eastern Victoria. Severe deficits are expected in New Zealand’s South Island.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

On May 21st, severe floods triggered by intense rainfall isolated towns in southeast Australia, specifically in the Hunter and Mid North Coast regions of New South Wales. Some regions received more than the equivalent of four months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours, with up to 12 inches expected to fall in total. In the towns of Taree and Glenthorne, residents were stranded on rooftops as emergency services attempted to rescue them. In addition to the heavy rain, the saturated ground and swollen rivers have worsened the flooding.

Several regions across southern Australia face severe drought, with states such as South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and Western Australia recording some of their lowest rainfall totals in history. Agriculture in affected areas are struggling with expensive feed and lack of water accessibility, and some towns are already under water restrictions. In some regions such as the Adelaide Hills, water is being trucked in, while some communities in Adelaide and Victoria have activated desalination plants.

The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) reports that Cyclone Alfred and the North Queensland floods—two major weather disasters in 2025— have generated a total of AU $1.5 billion in insurance claims. Cyclone Alfred is the primary driver of cost, with over 116,000 claims equalling AU $1.2 billion, though only 27% of claims have been settled so far. The North Queensland floods have led to about 11,000 claims worth over AU $250 million, with an average claim of $23,000, compared to $10,000 for Alfred.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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