ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List July 2025

These maps present regions currently experiencing long-term (12 month) anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation data from July 2024 through June 2025 (top) and regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one-year period beginning in April 2025 and running through March 2026 using 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data (bottom).

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List July 15, 2025 (pdf).

United States: Moderate and severe deficits dominate the western half of the country, while a mixture of surplus conditions persist throughout the eastern central plains and Appalachia.

Canada: Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast across the western and central provinces, with light surplus conditions in eastern areas.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Abnormal to moderate deficits expected throughout most of Mexico, with areas of severe deficit in central Mexico. Cuba and northern portions of Central America continue with extreme and exceptional droughts, while surpluses are forecasted for southern Central America.

South America: Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in eastern and central Brazil and along the Chile-Argentine border, while severe to extreme surpluses are forecast for portions of northern South America and the Amazon region.

Europe: Widespread severe to exceptional deficits are expected across much of central and southern Europe, with exceptional surplus conditions in northern Norway and Sweden and moderate surpluses in portions of Spain and Portugal.

Africa: Moderate to exceptional deficits are predicted for much of northern Africa with surpluses retreating in the Sahel. Exceptional deficits continue in portions of Guinea through Nigeria and in Ethiopia and Somalia.  Surpluses persist in eastern and southern Africa.

Middle East: Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast across much of the region, particularly in the Levant, Yemen, Oman, Iraq, and Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: Severe to exception deficits in western Russia with pockets of surpluses in central and eastern Russia. Continuing exceptional deficits east of Lake Baikal.

South Asia: Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for the southwest and northeast regions of India. Exceptional deficits expand in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to severe surpluses are expected across Maritime Southeast Asia, with moderate to severe deficit conditions in central Sumatra, the Malaysian peninsula, and northern Laos.

East Asia: Exceptional deficits are forecast for western Mongolia, northwestern and central China.  Mostly moderate deficits with pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected in southern coastal China. Severe to extreme deficits are predicted for southern Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: Exceptional deficits are expected in Tasmania and moderate deficits are expected across western Australia. Moderate to extreme surpluses in the northeast and southeast coast.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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