Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in the Ob & Yenisei River Basins
28 February 2019
In Russia, severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Upper Volga River Basin, moderate to severe conditions in Trans Volga, and both deficits and surpluses in the Lower Volga region. Surpluses are forecast on the Upper Ob River and in the Tom River Basin. Moderate to exceptional deficits are expected in the bulk of the Yenisei River Basin.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through April indicates that surpluses in the Ob River Basin of Russia will downgrade somewhat but remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast on the Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers. Exceptional surpluses are expected in the northern Yenisei River watershed. Surpluses will increase in the Northern European Plain from the Kola Peninsula in the west past the Vychegda Lowland.
Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the Upper Volga River Basin, moderate deficits in Trans Volga and along the Lower Volga River, and conditions of both deficits and surplus (purple) north of Volgograd as transitions occur. Deficits in western Kazakhstan are expected to moderate. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Zerafshon River in Uzbekistan and parts of the Syr Darya River in Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and around Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan.
From May through July, conditions in much of the Yenisei River Basin will transition from surplus to intense deficit, especially along the Lower and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers, eastern tributaries of the Yenisei. Conditions in the Lower and Middle Ob River Basin will transition to deficit, and surpluses and will shrink and downgrade in the Upper portions. Widespread deficits will spread in Russia west of the Urals, with moderate to severe conditions overall. Severe to extreme deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses will increase in northern and eastern Kyrgyzstan.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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