The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will downgrade but remain widespread. Other areas of surplus include eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Deficits are forecast for the Volga River Basin, the Fergana Valley in eastern Uzbekistan and into Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan. Deficits will be intense in the Fergana Valley.
The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
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