Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe

The forecast anticipates that while surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, intense deficits will remain in pockets throughout much of western Europe. Southern Europe, especially coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the Balkans, will experience exceptional deficits. 

Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe
Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and central Mexico, as well as in Central America. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mexico and in pockets of Central America. Eastern portions of the Caribbean can expect surplus to arise. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits linger in NW, central Mexico
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia

Krasnoyarsk

Central Asia & Russia: Intense Water deficits forecast for Ural River Basin

Central Asia & Russia: Intense Water deficits forecast for Ural River Basin

The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, esp Fergana Valley

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficit forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, esp Fergana Valley

Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2018

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2018

Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2017 through November 2018 include: the US West, Southwest, and South Atlantic States; southern Venezuela; Uruguay; northeastern Argentina; Finland; northern Africa and Gabon; and southern Iraq. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the Ohio River Valley and western Montana (US); Paraguay; Tanzania and Ethiopia; Ireland; Central and Eastern Europe; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2018.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

The forecast through March indicates exceptional surpluses in European Russia, along the Middle Ob River, the Tom River Basin, and Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Yenisei River. Exceptional deficits are expected in the Yamal Peninsula. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After March, surpluses in Russia are forecast to diminish. Deficits will downgrade in Yamal, persist in Turkmenistan, and spread in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Caucasus, western Kyrgyzstan and western Tajikistan. 

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Widespread pockets of exceptional water surplus conditions will continue across central Russia and northern and southern Kazakhstan for much of the forecast period, moderating towards early 2018. Increased flows are expected in the Ob and Volga River basins. Recent exceptional deficits across northern Russia may retreat somewhat to the northern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Moderate deficits are forecast to develop over much of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from June through November before moderating in early 2018.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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