The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast through February indicates that intense water deficits will nearly disappear, persisting in Tasmania, pockets of Victoria and New South Wales, and around Busselton in Western Australia. Deficits will be severe on the Murray River. Moderate deficits are forecast across northern Australia. In New Zealand, deficits are forecast in the north and surpluses in the south from Christchurch to Dunedin. Deficits in New Caledonia will moderate.
The forecast through December indicates that intense water deficits which have dominated much of Australia in prior months will retreat from most regions except the southeast. Deficits will be exceptional in Tasmania, and severe to exceptional along the southeast coast from Adelaide through Victoria and past Canberra. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for New Zealand. Deficits in New Caledonia will moderate.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2017 through January 2018 include: Florida (US), Brazil, northern Chile, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho (US), La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), and Kazakhstan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2017.
Widespread exceptional water deficits in South Australia are forecast to nearly disappear from March through May leaving moderate deficits, but widespread deficits of varying severity are forecast in eastern Australia, particularly Queensland, with exceptional deficits in Central West, Queensland. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for New South Wales, much of Victoria, and in Western Australia south of Perth. After May the forecast indicates considerable improvement with the near-absence of extreme to exceptional deficits, though severe deficits will emerge in eastern Tasmania.
From February through April moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for much of Queensland. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for New South Wales and southern Victoria. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to persist in North Island, New Zealand. Surpluses in the northern part of Western Australia and into the Victoria River Basin of Northern Territory are expected to diminish in severity. The forecast after April looks less eventful with moderate deficits tracing a path from Northern Territory’s Top End down along the eastern coast through New South Wales.
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