The forecast anticipates that while surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, intense deficits will remain in pockets throughout much of western Europe. Southern Europe, especially coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the Balkans, will experience exceptional deficits.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and central Mexico, as well as in Central America. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mexico and in pockets of Central America. Eastern portions of the Caribbean can expect surplus to arise.
The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Surpluses are forecast, however, for parts of Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tengara. Intense deficits will emerge in southernmost Thailand, and spread in Malaysia and northern Sumatra. Deficits of varying intensity are expected to emerge throughout Indonesia and may be extreme in West Nusa Tengara and Timor-Leste. Deficits in Papua New Guinea will downgrade but remain severe.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Moderate deficits are forecast for northern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, northern Luzon, and pockets of Sumatra and Java. More intense deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand and Malaysia, eastern Papua New Guinea, western Timor Leste, and West Nusa Tengara. Surpluses are expected in north-central Vietnam, northern Borneo, northern Sumatra, central Philippines, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tengara, and Pulau Sumba.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
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