Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: much of Canada, the Mississippi Valley, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa; western Turkey; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains, US; central Argentina; Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania; southeast India; and northwestern Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 January 2016.
*Water Watch Lists
The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
Africa
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
Australia & New Zealand
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
East Asia
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
