Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south, as shown in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula and re-emerge in Sonora. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.
The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist through March, moderate through June, and re-intensify July through September. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula, peaking in intensity from April through June and persisting through September. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula and will be most widespread April through June.
Deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala. By the end of the forecast period – July through September – abnormal to severe (3-20 year return period) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)