The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
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The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses in northern Coahuila, Mexico will remain intense. Surpluses will also persist from Zacatecas through Mexico City into northern Oaxaca, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla. Other areas of deficit include the northern Yucatan Peninsula, southern Chihuahua, northern Durango, and scattered small pockets in the south. Intense deficits are forecast for western Panama and moderate deficits will emerge in eastern Jamaica.
For the next three months, water surpluses are forecast in Mexico for northern Coahuila, along Sinaloa’s northern coast, and from southern Durango through Mexico City. Deficits are expected in the northern Yucatan and scattered small pockets throughout the south. Deficits along the Rio Grande in Chihuahua will moderate. Deficits in Cuba and Hispaniola will become mild, but intense deficits will emerge in eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Jamaica; surpluses in Coahuila MX & Nicaragua
For the next three months, water surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico, and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Intense surpluses are forecast in Nicaragua. Areas of deficit include: the Rio Grande in Chihuahua, northern Yucatan, western Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
The December Outlook indicates exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures, 40+ years return period, in Southeast Asia. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the Yangtze River Basin in China.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast for Coahuila, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, & Zacatecas, Mexico
The forecast through December indicates pockets of intense water deficit in Mexican states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and across to the Pacific. Moderate deficits are forecast for Yucatan and Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. Surpluses will persist in Coahuila, and will increase in northern Sinaloa, western Chihuahua, and from Zacatecas through Mexico City. Surpluses are expected in eastern Guatemala and eastern Costa Rica. Deficits in Cuba will moderate.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for southern Mexico & Jamaica
The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.
Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.