Though there are several regions with a July forecast of significant precipitation anomalies - India's Western Ghats will be much drier than normal and northern Argentina will be much wetter - the temperature forecast has more severe and widespread anomalies. The African Sahel, Saudi Arabia, and Mongolia are among the numerous regions forecast to see much warmer than normal temperatures.
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The forecast through March indicates scattered moderate water deficits throughout much of Mexico with pockets of exceptional deficits in the south and the Yucatan Peninsula. Deficits will persist in Guatemala and emerge in eastern Jamaica. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Haiti.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2016 through September 2017 include: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, eastern Brazil, Scandinavia, Arctic Russia, northern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and southern India. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, and northwestern Utah, southern Mediterranean Spain, western European Russia, eastern Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Vietnam, and Jiangsu, China. This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 January 2017.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: much of Canada, the Mississippi Valley, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa; western Turkey; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains, US; central Argentina; Ireland and the United Kingdom; Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania; southeast India; central Russia; southeast China; and northwestern Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 February 2016.
Mexico and Central America: Water Deficits Continue in Southern Mexico and Guatemala, Surpluses Persist in the Yucatan
Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity in the south. Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula and re-emerge in Sonora. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.