Europe: Moderate water deficits forecast through December
25 October 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2019 indicates intense deficits in many parts of Central and Northern Europe. Areas with extreme to exceptional deficits include Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and Czechia (Czech Republic).
Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for nearly all remaining areas of Europe, with the exception of northern European Russia, southwestern Serbia, and northern United Kingdom, where moderate surpluses are forecast.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.
Moderate deficits will dominate much of Europe from October through December, downgrading from prior exceptional deficits in many areas. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for southern Sweden, central Finland, southern France, Switzerland, and southern Germany. Norway is expected to transition from exceptional deficit to moderate surplus or normal conditions. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in Scotland and extreme surpluses in west-central Sweden. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for European Russia and eastern Ukraine.
From January through March, surpluses will increase in Northern Europe, deficits in Central and Eastern Europe will become merely mild or normalize, and moderate deficits are forecast for much of Mediterranean Europe including many Balkan regions. More specifically, surpluses will increase in northern United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, and European Russia, and will emerge in Switzerland, Czechia, southern Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses may be extreme to exceptional in Russia between Lake Onega and Rybinsk.
The forecast for the remaining months – April through June – indicates that surpluses will persist in parts of Northern Europe, but moderate deficits will increase throughout the region, with some severe deficits forecast in pockets of the Balkans and in western Ukraine.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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