The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
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The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense water deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Other areas with pockets of fairly intense deficit include northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Regions with surpluses include Switzerland, Austria, the Balkans, Romania, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2018 through October 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Latvia, Somalia, Angola, Iran, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas and Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 8 February 2019.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Moderate deficits will dominate much of Europe from through December, downgrading from prior exceptional deficits in many areas. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for southern Sweden, central Finland, southern France, Switzerland, and southern Germany. Norway is expected to transition from exceptional deficit to moderate surplus or normal conditions. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in Scotland and extreme surpluses in west-central Sweden. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for European Russia and eastern Ukraine.
Intense water deficits will give way to milder conditions after November along with some pockets of moderate surplus. Until then, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Germany, particularly in the south and along the Rhine River, as well as in Switzerland, Finland, southeastern Norway, and southern Ireland. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in many other areas including the Baltics, parts of Eastern Europe, Scotland and England, and much of France. Areas of surplus include Hungary and parts of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Surpluses will be intense in southern Hungary.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.
The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.