Europe: Water deficits forecast for Finland, Baltics, Croatia, & Spain
9 February 2019
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2019 indicates moderate to extreme deficits throughout most of Europe and exceptional deficits in southern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia and Croatia, Albania, Macedonia, and northern Greece.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.
Deficits are forecast to shrink and downgrade in Europe through March. However extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland, southern Sweden, eastern Slovenia and Croatia, and Macedonia. Severe deficits will emerge on the Iberian Peninsula, and deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, Italy, pockets of the Balkans, and central European Russia. Surpluses will diminish in northern European Russia; persist in southern Sweden and pockets of the UK; increase in Switzerland, Austria, and Czech Republic; and emerge in Romania, and scattered pockets of Central and Eastern Europe.
From April through June, moderate to severe deficits will cover most of Europe, with extreme to exceptional anomalies in Finland, Latvia, eastern Croatia, and Macedonia. Surpluses will persist in some pockets of Scotland, western Scandinavia, Switzerland and western Austria, and around Dnipropetrovsk in eastern Ukraine, and will re-emerge in the Central Russian Upland north of Ukraine.
The forecast for the remaining months – July through September – indicates primarily moderate deficit conditions throughout nearly all of Europe with more intense deficits in Finland, Norway, and Spain’s Mediterranean coast.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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