Europe: Water deficits forecast for Finland, Baltics, Croatia, & Spain

9 February 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2019 indicates moderate to extreme deficits throughout most of Europe and exceptional deficits in southern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia and Croatia, Albania, Macedonia, and northern Greece.

Areas of surplus include primarily moderate pockets in Scotland, central Austria, Spain northwest of Valencia, Dnipropetrovsk in eastern Ukraine, and Krasnodar on the Black Sea in southern Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

Deficits are forecast to shrink and downgrade in Europe through March. However extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland, southern Sweden, eastern Slovenia and Croatia, and Macedonia. Severe deficits will emerge on the Iberian Peninsula, and deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, Italy, pockets of the Balkans, and central European Russia. Surpluses will diminish in northern European Russia; persist in southern Sweden and pockets of the UK; increase in Switzerland, Austria, and Czech Republic; and emerge in Romania, and scattered pockets of Central and Eastern Europe.

From April through June, moderate to severe deficits will cover most of Europe, with extreme to exceptional anomalies in Finland, Latvia, eastern Croatia, and Macedonia. Surpluses will persist in some pockets of Scotland, western Scandinavia, Switzerland and western Austria, and around Dnipropetrovsk in eastern Ukraine, and will re-emerge in the Central Russian Upland north of Ukraine.

The forecast for the remaining months – July through September – indicates primarily moderate deficit conditions throughout nearly all of Europe with more intense deficits in Finland, Norway, and Spain’s Mediterranean coast.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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