The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits will remain intense in Northern Europe, especially in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Other areas of intense deficit include Luxembourg, northern Germany, central France and the Loire River, and along the Drava River through Austria. Areas of surplus include Scotland, central Italy and around the Adriatic Sea, Serbia, and northern Romania.
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The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for remaining areas of Europe and will be especially intense in southern Germany and along many rivers including the Danube, Drava, Allier, and Dordogne. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Ireland, and intense surpluses for southeastern Spain.
The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus north of Minsk, southern Sweden, and eastern Croatia. Deficits will moderate in Spain but intensify in central France, especially along the Loire and Dordogne Rivers. Surpluses are forecast for pockets of Switzerland and Austria, southern Umbria in central Italy, northwestern Sweden, and Murmansk, Russia.
The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2018 through November 2019 include: French Guiana, Finland, Latvia, Angola, Namibia, United Arab Emirates, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas, Texas, and Tennessee (US), Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2019.
Water deficits will shrink considerably in Central and Eastern Europe through March, but intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Sweden, Slovenia, Croatia, and Macedonia. Severe deficits will emerge on the Iberian Peninsula and deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, Italy, pockets of the Balkans, and central European Russia. Areas of surplus include northern European Russia, southern Sweden, pockets of the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Romania, and scattered pockets of Central and Eastern Europe.
Though the extent and intensity of water deficits in Europe will diminish considerably through February, severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast in Finland, pockets of Sweden, southern European Russia, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, western Germany, and eastern Slovenia and the Sava River Basin in Croatia and northern Bosnia-Herzegovina. Areas of surplus include Norway, northern European Russia, and the United Kingdom.
The forecast through October indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably but widespread deficits will continue to affect many parts of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe and will be especially intense in Finland, Estonia, and southern Germany. Moderate deficits will increase in France. Surpluses are forecast for Hungary, Serbia, Kosovo, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. On the Iberian Peninsula, surpluses will diminish overall, but persist in many parts of Spain and may be exceptional in the south.
The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.
The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.