Europe: Water surplus will increase in Central Europe

Europe: Water surplus will increase in Central Europe

22 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2021 indicates water deficits from the Baltics to the Black Sea, and from northern Germany through France, and in the Iberian Peninsula. Widespread surpluses are forecast for northern European Russia, the U.K. and Ireland, and a large, tentacled region centered in Austria.

The vast path of deficit from the Baltics through Bulgaria includes many areas of extreme to exceptional deficit including much of Estonia and Latvia and large pockets in Belarus, central Ukraine, and eastern Bulgaria, and encompasses the capital cities of Riga (Latvia) and Kyiv (Ukraine). Widespread deficits of varying intensity are also forecast for much of Finland from Lapland through the vast Lakeland region, and central Sweden.

In Central Europe, deficits will be especially intense in Belgium and Luxembourg and the Harz and Erzgebirge Mountain ranges in Germany. Moderate deficits are forecast in France. On the Iberian Peninsula, moderate deficits are forecast near Madrid becoming extreme in southwestern Spain and southern Portugal. Mixed conditions are expected in eastern Spain including pockets of intense deficit on the coast and surpluses northeast of Madrid. Deficits are forecast for Sicily, Sardinia, a belt across southern Italy, and between Bologna and Florence.

Surpluses will be widespread throughout Austria and Czech Republic and will reach into surrounding nations. Other areas of surplus in the region include southeastern Ukraine well into Romania, and Serbia. The U.K., Ireland, Denmark, southern Norway, and northern Sweden can also expect surpluses. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Southern Uplands of Scotland. Widespread surpluses are expected in European Russia including a vast area of exceptional surplus west of Moscow.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink considerably, returning many areas to near-normal conditions. Deficits are forecast, however, for the Baltics, southern Belarus, eastern Lapland, central Sweden, southern Belgium, and a few pockets in Germany. Severe deficits will emerge in a belt across southern Italy and relatively mild deficits in the southern Balkans. Surpluses will increase in Austria and Czech Republic, reaching well into surrounding nations and along rivers, while surpluses in Romania shrink. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include Ireland and the U.K., Denmark, southern Norway, the Upper Tagus River region in Spain, and pockets along Spain’s northern coast. Surpluses will remain widespread in European Russia though the extent of exceptional surpluses will shrink somewhat.

From January through March 2021 deficits will nearly disappear. Intense deficits will persist in eastern Lapland and moderate to extreme deficits in a pocket of west-central Sweden. Some moderate deficits will linger in Italy and the eastern Balkans. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will increase in the center of Europe including Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, western Ukraine, Romania, and rivers in Hungary, and will reach into Germany and Poland. Anomalies continue to be extreme in Czech Republic. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in regions around the North Sea.

The forecast for the remaining months – April through June 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions overall with pockets of surplus in European Russia and Central Europe, and deficits in Finland, pockets around the Mediterranean Sea, and the eastern Balkans.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A deadly storm tore through the mountains between Italy and France, bringing floods that claimed twelve lives. Italy’s Piedmont region received 630mm (24.8in) of rain in a 24-hour period, the most in 60 years. Near Nice in southeastern France, almost a year’s worth fell in a 12-hour period. Flooding destroyed bridges, damaged roads, swallowed up homes, and carried away corpses washed from several cemeteries in the region.

In mid-October, persistent rain produced flooding in eastern Czech Republic as many rivers and stream overflowed, spilling over roads, field, and into cellars. Flood alerts were issued for 11 areas, mainly in Moravia and Silesia, and firefighters were called in to pump water, construct dikes, and clear culverts.

Drought and bark beetles have taken a toll on Germany’s forests. The government has begun funding programs that encourage a switch from softwood to hardwood growth, a change that will increase natural resilience but likely reduce the export potential of the nation’s forest industry.

Recent consecutive years of drought have prompted Germany to begin work on a national water strategy. Drought in 2018 and 2019 suppressed agricultural output, constrained power production, and hampered shipping along the country’s major waterways.

Farmer’s in Moldova’s drought-stricken region of Gagauzia will receive 54 million lei (~ USD$3 million) in relief for lost grain crops after petitioning the government. Poor precipitation in the region affected 13,000 hectares of corn and 5,000 hectares of sunflowers.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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