Notable in the near-term forecast is the retreat of water surplus in Central Europe and a transition to moderate deficit. Deficits in Northern Europe are expected to persist and increase, with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will remain intense in Hungary, southern Romania, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria, and will increase in Ukraine. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Ireland and the UK, and will spread on the Iberian Peninsula. After June, mild deficits are forecast for Central Europe, more intense deficits in Northern Europe, and surplus in the western Iberian Peninsula.
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The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to nearly disappear from October on, but pockets will remain through December in central Finland and the Norwegian Sea coast. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the remainder of Finland and moderate deficits for much of Southern Europe. A vast expanse of surpluses is forecast in European Russia, and surpluses are also predicted in Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, UK, and southern Norway. From January through March surpluses are forecast to increase across Northern Europe, particularly in European Russia, while deficits persist across Southern Europe.
From March through May widespread water surpluses are forecast to emerge in western European Russia, which may be exceptional near St. Petersburg and to the east. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, much of Latvia, southern Sweden and Denmark. Scattered moderate deficits are forecast for much of Western and Central Europe with pockets of greater severity in central Germany, southern Austria, Macedonia, and from Rome to Palermo, Italy. Surpluses are forecast for Switzerland and eastern Romania. The June through August forecast indicates primarily moderate deficits throughout most of Europe with widespread exceptional deficits persisting in Finland and Estonia.
The February 2017 Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures for France, Germany, United Kingdom, Scandinavia, Myanmar, and north-central Mexico, along with warm anomalies of varying severity in many other places. The Central Amazon Basin should see much wetter than normal conditions.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist through January in Western Europe, Sweden, and Finland, while Eastern Europe transitions to conditions of water surplus which will persist through April. Deficits in Western Europe will persist through April or longer and deficits will continue to emerge in Mediterranean Europe.
For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe, and though the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Surpluses are forecast for European Russia. After November, water surpluses will emerge across Northern Europe, western European Russia from St. Petersburg to the White Sea, and in the Volga Basin.
Water deficits are forecast to persist over the next several months in Finland, southern Norway and Sweden, the Baltics, eastern Germany, Eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Mediterranean. Water surpluses are forecast to persist, though diminished in extent and severity, in the United Kingdom, northern France and across the border into Germany. From November on, a transition to water surpluses across Northern Europe, the Baltics, European Russia, and later, Central Europe, is forecast. Deficits remain in the forecast for countries along the Mediterranean Sea through April.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast and Southeast, southern Mexico, central Brazil, Finland, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: western Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Texas, the Ob and Volga River Basins in Russia, central India, the Yellow and Lower Yangtze Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2016.
Water surpluses are forecast through August for northeastern France; northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain; and North Yorkshire, United Kingdom. Water deficits are forecast for Germany, Poland, western Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, Mediterranean Spain, Corsica, the Peloponnese region of Greece, and Crete. Deficits are expected to persist in Finland and the Baltics. With the exception of deficits in Finland, both deficits and surpluses throughout Europe are forecast to diminish in severity after August.