Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus forecast for C America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus forecast for C. America

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending July 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity in northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas of the north including the Baja Peninsula, northwestern Sonora, Chihuahua, and Coahuila.

In central Mexico, a wide belt of deficits will reach from Nayarit on the Pacific Coast to Tamaulipas and Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico and will include pockets of exceptional deficit, particularly in San Luis Potosi. A few small pockets of surplus are forecast scattered throughout the southern states.

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for many regions in Central America and will be exceptional in pockets of Guatemala and extreme from southern Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica.

In Cuba, severe deficits are expected in Sancti Spíritus and Ciego de Ávila Provinces in the center of the nation, and surpluses near Havana. Deficits are also forecast for Turks and Caicos Islands and Dominican Republic; surpluses are expected in Jamaica and the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in much of Mexico outside of the Yucatán Peninsula. Though deficits will be mild to moderate in many regions, several large areas will experience more intense anomalies: deficits will be exceptional in central Baja; severe to exceptional in southern Chihuahua; and severe to exceptional in a broad path from southern Nuevo León into San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas, northern Veracruz, Querétaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. Surpluses in the southern states will shrink and downgrade overall but will intensify in the northern region of the Yucatán Peninsula.

Surpluses will persist throughout Central America and will be particularly intense in southern Guatemala and from southern Nicaragua into Costa Rica. Deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear, and areas of surplus include Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

From Feb through April 2021, a wide path of exceptional deficit will emerge in Mexico from Durango south through Jalisco, trailing into Michoacán. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in the northern states of Chihuahua and Coahuila, and exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Baja while moderating in central Baja. Around the Gulf, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall but remain intense in central Veracruz and regions in neighboring land-locked states. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the northern Yucatán but persist in much of Central America. In the Caribbean, deficits will emerge in Cuba and the Bahamas along with transitional conditions. Surpluses will persist in western Jamaica.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions for much of Mexico with some moderate deficits in Baja, the central north, and Tabasco and Chiapas in the south; and scattered surpluses near the Pacific Coast. Surpluses in Central America will shrink. Deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean and pockets of surplus are forecast in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In late October, a landslide triggered by Tropical Storm Zeta killed 2 people in Jamaica.

Hurricane Eta claimed at least 57 lives in Central America in early November, with many of the deaths attributed to multiple mudslides in Guatemala as the death toll continued to rise. Honduras’ Ramón Villeda Morales International Airport flooded during Eta and again several weeks later when Hurricane Iota struck. Iota left at least 12 dead in Honduras and 16 in Nicaragua.

Drought conditions in Chihuahua, Mexico are creating economic havoc for ranchers in the region, pushing feed costs up by 100 percent while suppressing prices garnered from the sale of live animals by 40 to 50 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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