The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
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The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses in northern Coahuila, Mexico will remain intense. Surpluses will also persist from Zacatecas through Mexico City into northern Oaxaca, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla. Other areas of deficit include the northern Yucatan Peninsula, southern Chihuahua, northern Durango, and scattered small pockets in the south. Intense deficits are forecast for western Panama and moderate deficits will emerge in eastern Jamaica.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Jamaica; surpluses in Coahuila MX & Nicaragua
For the next three months, water surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico, and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Intense surpluses are forecast in Nicaragua. Areas of deficit include: the Rio Grande in Chihuahua, northern Yucatan, western Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses persist in Nicaragua; deficits ahead for Jamaica
The forecast through January indicates moderate to severe deficits in the northern Yucatan Peninsula and scattered throughout the southern states, and severe deficits along the Rio Grande in Chihuahua. Surpluses are forecast for northern Coahuila; a path from southern Durango through Mexico City; and, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. Intense deficits are forecast for Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast for Coahuila, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, & Zacatecas, Mexico
The forecast through December indicates pockets of intense water deficit in Mexican states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and across to the Pacific. Moderate deficits are forecast for Yucatan and Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. Surpluses will persist in Coahuila, and will increase in northern Sinaloa, western Chihuahua, and from Zacatecas through Mexico City. Surpluses are expected in eastern Guatemala and eastern Costa Rica. Deficits in Cuba will moderate.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.