Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.
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Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
Mexico will transition away from significant water deficits in the northwest but widespread, intense deficits will emerge across the south and in the east. Deficits may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in northeastern Sonora. In Central America surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and will emerge in Panama. Deficits are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for much of the Caribbean.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja will downgrade somewhat. Moderate deficits are forecast for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, central Mexico, and along the Gulf from Veracruz into Yucatan. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica; deficits are forecast for Haiti and Dominican Republic. After July, intense deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America.
In the next few months intense water deficits will continue to emerge in Baja, Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Sonora and north-central Mexico. Relatively normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink considerably, but intense surplus conditions are forecast for Jamaica. Deficits in western Cuba will downgrade to mild. After June, severe deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Moderate surpluses will emerge along rivers in eastern Sonora, Mexico.
In the next few months water deficits in Baja, Mexico will remain intense, with exceptional deficits emerging in the south. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also forecast for Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, along with deficits slightly less severe in Chihuahua. Surpluses of varying severity will continue to emerge in pockets of southern Mexico leading into northern Guatemala and Belize, where conditions may be extreme. Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast for Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.
In the next few months, exceptional water deficits will retreat in northwestern Mexico but persist in southern Baja and emerge in Nayarit. Severe deficits are forecast in the north-central states and along the Rio Grande. Some pockets of surplus are expected in southern Mexico and northern Guatemala, and more intense surpluses in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Severe deficit is forecast for western Cuba and the Bahamas. After April, deficits will downgrade in southern Baja and surpluses will emerge in western Mexico from Durango into Oaxaca.
Intense water deficits across northwestern Mexico are expected to moderate from January through March, but moderate to severe deficits will spread in the north-central states. Intense deficits will emerge in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. After March, deficits are forecast in northern Mexico, moderate surpluses along the southwestern coast, and surpluses in Central America will diminish.
Intense water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Jamaica. In the near-term, exceptional deficits across northwestern Mexico will moderate but severe deficits will emerge further south coast-to-coast from Jalisco through Veracruz and also in Oaxaca. Deficits in western Cuba will moderate. After February intense deficits will emerge in southern Baja and Nayarit, Mexico but much of southern Mexico will return to nearly normal water conditions with scattered pockets of surplus.
Though intense water surpluses will persist in Central America, the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish. Deficits will continue to emerge in pockets across northern Mexico, diminishing in Sonora but emerging with greater severity in Chihuahua. Surpluses in northern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon will begin to transition to both deficit and surplus. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Mexico and Guatemala. After January, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Jalisco, Mexico, and deficits across the northern states will diminish.
Exceptional water deficits in Cuba are forecast to retreat through December, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Tamaulipas, Mexico, and other pockets across the north. The extent of exceptional surpluses in Central America is expected to shrink, but surpluses remain in the forecast and may be especially intense in Honduras. After December moderate deficits will continue to emerge in northern Mexico with more severe deficits in Tamaulipas. Surpluses will persist in Central America but will begin to transition to deficits in El Salvador.