Africa: Surplus continues in the Sahel

20 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12 month period ending in January 2026 indicates that January 2026 indicates that surpluses in the Sahel and southern Africa will continue. Exceptional deficits in northern and central Africa will diminish in size, but remain in northwestern countries and near the Gulf of Guinea.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Algeria, widespread throughout the country. These deficits spread throughout northern Mali, eastern Mauritania, northeastern Niger, and western to central Libya. Northeastern coastal Libya will also observe extreme to exceptional deficits.
Most coastal regions of countries along the Gulf of Guinea, including Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Ghana and Nigeria.
Northern to north-central Democratic Republic of Congo, with deficits spreading east into Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and northeastern Republic of Congo. Regions in Uganda north of Lake Victoria will observe severe deficits.
Isolated pockets of west-central Tanzania, as well as in regions along the country’s southern border shared with northern and northeastern Mozambique.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

The majority of the Sahel, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central to southern Chad, southwestern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and northern Uganda. Southern Mali and Burkina Faso will also observe severe surpluses.
Botswana, widespread throughout the country.
Southwestern Zimbabwe and throughout northeastern to central South Africa.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in central Africa will diminish, with surpluses spreading further throughout the Sahel. The most intense surpluses are expected in southern and southwestern Sudan, South Sudan and eastern Chad. Further south, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to affect numerous countries, including southwestern and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Cameroon, northwestern Angola, and northwestern Namibia.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in regions of eastern Botswana, southwestern Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and throughout central to eastern South Africa. Isolated pockets of surpluses are expected to occur in the Niassa and Cabo Delgado provinces in northern Mozambique. Exceptional deficits are expected to span some countries in regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, including Liberia, western Ivory Coast, and southern Nigeria. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also expected in portions of central and southern Algeria, central Libya, northern Mali, central Democratic Republic of Congo, and northern Zambia. Northern regions of Madagascar near the Helodrano Narinda Bay will also observe exceptional deficits.

From August through October 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to strengthen in regions along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, as well as in northern Mali, central to northern Mauritania, and central and northern Libya. Exceptional deficits will also emerge in Equatorial Guinea and in Zambia, near the town of Solwezi. Widespread surpluses in the Sahel will continue, with the most intense anomalies occurring in southwestern Sudan, South Sudan, western and central Ethiopia, and Uganda. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are also anticipated in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, northwestern and eastcentral Angola, northwestern Namibia, and through Botswana, southwestern Zimbabwe, and central to northeastern South Africa. Southern coastal Madagascar will also observe severe to exceptional surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – indicates that surpluses will continue throughout the Sahel. Extreme to exceptional surpluses may continue in southwestern Sudan. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected throughout South Sudan, northern Uganda, and eastern to southeastern Botswana. Exceptional deficits will continue along the Gulf of Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Food security in Africa worsens as water scarcity hits the arid northern areas of Nigeria – where most of the country’s food is produced. Farmers in the state of Sokoto struggle to grow crops due to dried-up rivers, prolonged dryness, and expensive costs for water access. The effects are nationwide—yields are down, food prices are soaring in southern cities such as Lagos, and food imports have jumped 136% from 2023 to 2024.

In Morocco, the Ministry of Agriculture recently launched an emergency support program to help farmers cope with ongoing drought. The initiative includes the distribution of 12.3 million quintals of barley and 4.9 million quintals of cattle feed, with additional quantities planned. Agriculture Minister Ahmed Bouari noted that the program is roughly 80 percent complete and aims to offset the drought's impact on livestock and red meat supply, which has led to higher costs for consumers.

The State of the Climate in Africa 2024 report highlighted that climate change and extreme weather are worsening hunger and displacing residents across the continent. 2024 was among the hottest years on record, with unprecedented sea temperatures and widespread marine heatwaves affecting the region. The report urges for investment in infrastructure and data to boost early warning systems and climate resilience.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags