Middle East: Exceptional deficits remain in Levant, Iraq, Iran, Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Exceptional deficits remain in Levant, Iraq, Iran, Arabian Peninsula

20 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that exceptional deficits throughout the Middle East will decrease in size, but remain present in several regions. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Much of the Levant, including the majority of Israel, the West Bank, Lebanon, and regions along the borders of western and northern Syria, southern Turkey, and northern Iraq.  

  • Northeastern Jordan, in the Rwaished District.

  • Iran, widespread throughout the country.  

  • Saudi Arabia, with exceptional deficits covering significant portions of the country’s south-central regions, primarily near the cities of Jedda, Adha, and Riyadh. 

  • Yemen, in the Al Jawf Governatore and the Hat region, as well as central regions of Oman. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Yemen, along the country’s western coast bordering the Red Sea. 

  • Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in coastal regions near the city of Jazan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 expects severe surpluses to emerge in eastern areas of India’s Andhra Pradesh state, as well as near the city of Surat, western Telangana, and much of Sri Lanka. Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in west-central areas of Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, as well as regions in Afghanistan's Helmand province. These deficits are also anticipated in Bhutan, as well as in the Indian states of Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura. 

From August through October 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to spread through much of central and south-central India. Severe to extreme surpluses will appear in coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated in central to northern Afghanistan, near the city of Kandahar and the Bande Pitaw Wildlife Refuge. In India, the region of Ladakh can anticipate severe deficits, as well as northernmost areas of Pakistan. 

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – anticipates that moderate to severe surpluses will spread further throughout central and southern India. Exceptional deficits may appear in regions along the eastern border of Pakistan and western border of India’s Rajasthan state. Severe deficits may continue in Ladakh.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Israel recently experienced one of its largest wildfires in history, prompting a national emergency as the flames spread near the city of Jerusalem. Over 6,000 acres were burned, including 2,000 acres of forest, and at least 12 people have been hospitalized. The Israel Meteorological Service said temperatures around 100 degrees Fahrenheit compounded with one of the most significant droughts in a century increased the severity of fire.

Iran faces an escalation of its current water crisis as over-extraction from wells and low rainfall deplete reserves. Ahad Vazifeh, head of Iran’s National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, stated that over 80% of over-extraction comes from legal wells. Major cities like Tehran are already at risk of crisis, as much of their drinking water comes from rapidly depleting underground sources. Experts warn of a “full-scale water catastrophe,” citing that about 80% of Iran's groundwater has been consumed. 

Iraq’s livestock sector is in crisis as persistent drought has significantly diminished water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. As these rivers supply over 70% of Iraq’s water, the lack of water availability has caused the country’s buffalo population to plummet from 150,000 in 2015 to 65,000 in 2025. Additionally, UNICEF warns that millions of Iraqis now struggle to access drinking water; Iraq’s strategic water reserves have dropped to just 7.5 billion cubic meters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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