These maps present regions currently experiencing long-term (12 month) anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation data from November 2024 through October 2025 (top) and regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one-year period beginning in August 2025 and running through July 2026 using 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data (bottom).
The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List November 17, 2025 (pdf).
United States: The forecast shows exceptional long-term deficits persisting in New England, particularly in Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Localized exceptional deficits are also expected in northern and southern areas of West Virginia. Moderate deficits--with small areas of severe--are expected across much of the southwestern United States including California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Moderate to extreme seasonal surpluses are forecast from February through April of 2026 for portions of southern Florida heading into the Keys and pockets of the upper mountain west regions throughout Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in Alaska through early summer 2026.
Canada: The forecast indicates exceptional to extreme long-term deficits persisting across the Prairie Provinces and the northwest, particularly in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, the Northwest Territories, northeastern British Columbia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Islannd, and Nova Scotia. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast near Hudson Bay through July 2026.
Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast shows a transition toward more normal long-term conditions across much of the region. Moderate deficits are expected in northern Mexico including Baja California, Sonora, and Coahuila. Central Mexico surrounding Guadalajara and Mexico City is forecast to experience moderate surpluses and moderate mixed surpluses and deficits. Localized areas of exceptional deficit are forecast along Mexico’s Pacific coast in Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero; these are expected to reach their peak during February-March-April of 2026. Scattered moderate surpluses are expected along the Pacific coast of Central America. The Caribbean islands show moderate to severe surpluses, particularly in eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti.
South America: The forecast indicates significant moderation from observed conditions. Moderate deficits are expected to persist through January 2026 in central and southern Brazil near São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, as well as portions of Bolivia, southeastern Peru, and along the Argentina-Chile border. Exceptional to extreme surpluses observed through central Peru, Ecuador, and Columbia are expected to moderate.
Europe: The forecast shows substantial improvement toward near-normal long-term conditions across much of the continent, however, localized severe to exceptional deficits are expected around the Poland-Belarus-Ukraine and Romania-Hungary-Serbia tripoint areas. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecasts for much of England, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Abnormal to moderate surpluses are expected in western Ireland; along the Rhine near the France-Germany-Switzerland border; Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia; and southern Norway and most of Sweden.
Africa: The forecast indicates improvement, yet persistent, abnormal to exceptional deficits across North Africa including Morocco, Algeria, western Libya, Mali, and Mauritania. Large areas of exceptional deficit are also expected in southern DRC, and the eastern point of the Horn of Africa, but they are expected only to last through January 2026. Moderate to severe deficits are also expected along the West African coast from Côte d’Ivoire into western Nigeria. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast to continue across the Sahel region including Senegal, Liberia, southwestern Mali, Togo, Benin, northern Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. They are expected to persist into 2026 and expand into Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan by May through July of 2026. Southern Africa shows moderate surpluses expanding across Botswana, Zimbabwe, and portions of South Africa and Mozambique, but they will return to mostly normal conditions by early 2026.
Middle East: Expansive observed deficits from the Levant into the Turkey-Syria border, Iraq and Turkmenistan are expected to moderate, however, pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected to remain in Iran, Iraq, and eastern Turkey, particularly along the Tigris and Euphrates River basins; the deficits are expected to moderate in early 2026 and re-intensify from May to July of 2026. The Arabian Peninsula including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman is forecast to experience persistent moderate to severe deficits in southeastern section, but moderate surpluses are expected along the western coast.
Central Asia and Russia: The forecast shows moderate to severe deficits persisting across portions of southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. Scattered pockets of abnormal to severe surpluses are expected throughout the Russian Krasnoyarsk Krais.
South Asia: The forecast indicates a reduction in the extent of long-term exceptional surpluses that have been observed across India. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in central and southern India including regions around Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore, as well as along the central-eastern Ganges river basins. Bangladesh is forecast to experience moderate surpluses along the Padma river, but normal conditions should return by February 2026. Exceptional deficits are forecast for November 2025 through January 2026 starting in the northwestern Indian desert and transitioning into Pakistan along the Indus river before spreading into the Hingol River delta to the west.
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast indicates a transition toward near-normal conditions across much of the region including Kalimantan, Indonesian Papua, Papua New Guinea, and northern Myanmar. From November 2025 to January 2026, scattered moderate to extreme deficits are expected in northern Sumatra and Brunei from, while the Philippines are expected to be under abnormal to exceptional surpluses. Mixed surplus and deficit conditions are expected to moderate, yet continue, in northern Vietnam.
East Asia: The forecast shows persistent moderate to exceptional deficits across western China including Xinjiang, Qinghai, and western Inner Mongolia. Moderate to severe deficits are also forecast for along the Yangtze River and the greater Beijing and Tokyo metropolitan areas. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are projected along the Yellow River Basin. Moderate to exceptional surplus are also expected through April 2026 in Chongqing heading south to northern Vietnam where mixed surplus and deficit conditions are expected to emerge along the China-Vietnam border.
Australia & New Zealand: The forecast indicates dramatic improvement from observed exceptional deficits throughout southern and southwestern Australia. Most of Australia is expected to transition to near normal or slightly dry conditions. Moderate surpluses are forecast to persist in northern and southern Queensland and the South Island of New Zealand through January 2026, and along the coast surrounding Sydney through April 2026.