ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2025

These maps present regions currently experiencing long-term (12 month) anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation data from December 2024 through November 2025 (top) and regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one-year period beginning in September 2025 and running through August 2026 using 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data (bottom).

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List December 15, 2025 (pdf).

United States: Observed conditions continue to show widespread exceptional drought across New England, which is expected to continue in Maine and New Hampshire but transition to more normal conditions through Vermont and Massachusettes by February 2026. Observed exceptional droughts throughout Texas will transition to more normal conditions by February 2026, however, deficit conditions will intensify throughout the deep south including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western coast of Florida. The Dec-Feb 2026 forecast indicates severe to exceptional deficits developing in northwest lower Michigan and spreading west into Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in northern Alaska through August 2026 and localized areas near southwestern Colorado, northern Idaho, the Lake Tahoe area through February 2026.

Canada: The forecast indicates extreme to exceptional deficits persisting across the Prairie Provinces, particularly in southern Alberta near Calgary and across Saskatchewan and Manitoba near Winnipeg. These are expected to persist, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba well into 2026. Severe deficits are expected in the interior of British Columbia while coastal regions show some moderate surpluses through February 2026. The Atlantic provinces including Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island display severe to exceptional deficits mirroring conditions in neighboring New England, but these are expected to disipate by Mar-May 2026. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Quebec and coastal Labrador.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show moderate to severe deficits across northern Mexico including Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua with mixed surplus and deficit conditions in Zacatecas and Durango. The Caribbean experienced a mix of significant anomalies with severe to moderate to exceptiontal surpluses in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, extreme to exceptional mixed surplus and deficit conditions in Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and pockets of extreme to exceptional deficits in western Cuba. Nicaragua and Costa Rica displayed moderate to severe surpluses. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates Caribbean deficits will motly transition to normal conditions with areas of severe surpluses, while most of Mexico and Central America transition toward near-normal conditions with pockets of scattered abnormal to moderate surpluses and deficits.

South America: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show exceptional deficits across the Amazon basin, central Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay, with severe impacts extending to the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro metropolitan regions. Northern South America presents a stark contrast with exceptional surpluses in Colombia and Venezuela, and exceptional surpluses in Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Ecuador, Peru, and western Bolivia. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates improvement for the Amazon region, with diminished moderate to severe surpluses in lieu of the current exceptional deficits. Deficits in southern Mato Grosso Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to diminish significantly, while surpluses in Colombia will continue at moderate levels.

Europe: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show moderate to severe surpluses across the Iberian Peninsula, northern Italy, and along the northwestern Scandinavia coastline. In contrast, exceptional deficits were observed across the Balkans, Turkey, and portions of Eastern Europe including the Ukraine-Poland-Belarus border, along the Elbe River, and most of the United Kingdom. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) shows a large moderation of conditions across the continent; especially deficit conditions, but moderate to severe surplus conditions will emerge in the Balkans, western England and Ireland, and the Switzerland-France and Poland-Czechia-Slovakia borders. Most of central and western Europe are expected to transition toward near-normal conditions.

Africa: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show severe to exceptional deficits across North Africa including Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and along the Nile in Egypt. The West African coast from Sierra Leone through Nigeria and Cameroon also experienced severe to exceptional deficits, extending into Central Africa including the Central African Republic (CAF) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In contrast, the Sahel region displays exceptional surpluses stretching from Senegal through Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Southern Africa including Botswana, Zimbabwe, and portions of South Africa also shows moderate to severe surpluses. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates North African deficits will persist but diminish in intensity and exceptional widespread deficits in southern DRC will also persist, however, deficits in northern DRC, CAF, Cameroon, Chad, and South Sudan are expected to disipate. Sahel surpluses are expected to continue, as are surplus conditions in Southern Africa, albeit less intense and widespread.

Middle East: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show exceptional deficits across southeast Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel, with particularly intense conditions along the Tigris and Euphrates River basins. The Arabian Peninsula including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and the UAE experienced moderate to severe deficits with pockets of exceptional deficit in the Musandam Peninsula and the Makkah region. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates conditions will improve across the region, although moderate and higher deficits are expected to persist in nearly the entire region with areas of exceptional deficit remaining along the southern coast of the Caspian Sea and emerging throughout central Oman. Moderate surpluses are forecast to emerge in the southwestern Arabian Peninsula by December-February 2025 and remain into August 2026.

Central Asia and Russia: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show exceptional deficits across Central Asia including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, with particularly intense conditions around the Aral Sea basin and Amu Darya River region. Western Russia experienced moderate deficits. In contrast, eastern Siberia and Russia’s Far East displayed moderate to severe surpluses. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates Central Asian deficits will persist but diminish from exceptional to moderate levels. Western Russia is expected to transition toward near-normal conditions with localized regions of severe to extreme deficits, while surpluses in eastern Siberia are forecast to continue.

South Asia: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show widespread surpluses across central and northern India, with exceptional surpluses across Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. Eastern Pakistan along the Indus River valley, Bangladesh, southeastern Tamil Nadu, and Sri Lanka also experienced moderate to exceptional surpluses conditions. The seasonal forecast shows surpluses remaining through May 2026 before transitioning toward near-normal conditions by Jun-Aug 2026 throughout most of the region.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show moderate to exceptional surpluses across mainland Southeast Asia including Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. Moderate to exceptional surpluses also persisted across Jarva, Western New Guinea, and the Philippines. In contrast, Indonesia experienced moderate to exceptional deficits, particularly across northern Sumatra and western Borneo. The seasonal forecast predicts moderate to severe surpluses to persist through February 2026 across portions of the mainland, northern Philippines, and Java, however, conditions are expected to return to a mix of near normal with scattered abnormal to moderate deficits across the southern islands.

East Asia: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show moderate to exceptional deficits across Mongolia and northwestern China including Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. These deficits are expected to reduce in intensity through May 2026 but return in early summer of 2026. Moderate to exceptional surpluses extended from the Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi provinces north through Chongqing and all the towards Beijing and the surrounding regions. This band of surpluses are expected to continue through February 2026 before conditions return to normal in the south and a mix of abnormal and moderate surpluses surrounding Beijing. Japan experienced severe deficits throughout Tokyo and northern Honshu. These are expected to continue through May 2026. The Korean peninsula displayed a mix of normal and abnormal conditions; these are forecast to continue into early summer 2026.

Australia & New Zealand: Observed conditions (Dec 2024-Nov 2025) show moderate to severe surpluses across northern Australia including the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, extending south into the northern portions of the Lake Eyre watershed. In contrast, exceptional deficits were observed in Tasmania and portions of central and interior Australia including South Australia. Western Australia near Perth experienced moderate deficits. New Zealand displayed moderate to severe deficits concentrated in coastal regions. The 12-month forecast (Sep 2025-Aug 2026) indicates a dramatic improvement across the region, with most areas transitioning toward near-normal conditions. Slight surpluses may persist along Australia’s northern coast.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.