ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2025

These maps present regions currently experiencing long-term (12 month) anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation data from August 2024 through July 2025 (top) and regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one-year period beginning in May 2025 and running through April 2026 using 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data (bottom).

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 15, 2025 (pdf).

United States: Severe to exceptional deficits dominate the western states and are expected to continue (with less intensity) through April 2026. Recent surpluses in Alaska will return to more normal conditions, while moderate surpluses in central Appalachia are projected to expand in a band stretching from Oklahoma to Maryland.

Canada: Widespread exceptional deficits are forecast to persist for a large band stretching from Alberta through northwestern Ontaria and Nova Scotia. Regions of exceptional surpluses are forecast for Nunavut and Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Moderate to severe deficits are expected to persist across much of northern Mexico but reduce in intensity. Severe to exceptional surpluses in Central America are forecast to transition to moderate deficits.

South America: Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for eastern Brazil and parts of the southern cone, while severe to exceptional surpluses are expected across northern South America and parts of the Amazon basin.

Europe: Severe to exceptional deficits continue throughout nearly all of Europe except for the Iberian Peninsula. Deficits are expected to continue, but with less intensity through October 2025.

Africa: Moderate to exceptional deficits dominate much of northern Africa and the Sahel. Moderate to severe surpluses persist in parts of southern Africa.

Middle East: Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast across most of the region. The most intense deficits are expected throughout Yemen and Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist in southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for western Russia and Buryatia while surpluses are forecast for central and eastern regions.

South Asia: Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Kerala, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in Uttar Pradesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional surpluses continue over eastern portions of Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in southern Papua.  Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for northern Sumatra and Malaysia.

East Asia: Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in parts of the Yellow River Basin.

Australia & New Zealand: Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for northern Queensland and coastal New South Wales. Moderate deficits are expected across western and central Australia.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.