ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2025

These maps present regions currently experiencing long-term (12 month) anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation data from September 2024 through August 2025 (top) and regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one-year period beginning in June 2025 and running through May 2026 using 3 months of observed data and 9 months of forecast data (bottom).

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List September 12, 2025 (pdf).

United States: Severe to exceptional deficits continue to dominate the western states, with the most intense conditions expected in Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona New Mexico and western Colorado. Extreme to exceptional deficits expand throughout New England, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Canada: Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist across a large swath of western Canada from British Columbia through Saskatchewan and central Manitoba. Exceptional deficits continue in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected in in portions of Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Moderate to exceptional deficits will persist in northwest Mexico. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in central Mexico and Nicaragua. Exceptional deficits may emerge along the west coast of Mexico during Spring 2026.

South America: The extreme deficits that currently dominate the continent are forecast to recede. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast to continue through parts of northern and central Brazil and the Chile-Argentine border. Abnormal to moderate surpluses may remerge throughout much of the continent during Spring 2026.

Europe: Severe to exceptional deficits will continue across the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, and most of eastern and southern Europe. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected to emerge in France and the Iberian Peninsula.

Africa: Exceptional deficits persist in northwestern Africa, including portions of Mauritania, Malia, and Algeria. Exceptional deficits recede in coastal west Africa, but persist in portions of Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Siera Leone. Surpluses persist in the western Sahel and southern Africa.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits persist throughout much of Turkey and western Iran. Extreme deficits persist in coastal Syria.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional deficits persist in Northern Siberia, Buryatia, and eastern portions of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

South Asia: Severe to exceptional surpluses continue across much of India, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and West Bengal. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Pakistan, Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional surpluses persist in the Philippines, eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Severe to exceptional deficits persist in Malaysia and northern Sumatra.

East Asia: Severe to exceptional deficits persist throughout Xinjiang, western Shandong, northeastern Sichuan provinces. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Yellow River Basin, particularly during December 2025 to February 2026.

Australia & New Zealand: Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for northern and eastern Australia, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in Tasmania.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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