ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST AUGUST 2016

Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2016 and running through April 2017 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast August 15, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Canada: The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast, particularly Florida. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.

The outlook for Canada indicates a predominance of water deficits, with large pockets of exceptional deficits persisting in northern Manitoba and central Quebec through October. Deficits will emerge in central Ontario during this time and surpluses will persist in northwest Saskatchewan and across the border into Alberta. By November deficit conditions throughout the country are forecast to ameliorate, though large areas of moderate deficits will remain. Surpluses will continue to emerge in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Deficits on the Baja Peninsula are forecast through October, with some abatement in August. Deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico through April. Surpluses are expected in northeastern Sonora, Mexico, northern Costa Rica, and eastern Panama through October. Deficits are forecast to emerge in Haiti. From November on moderate deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

South America: South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits after October. However, until then exceptional deficits are forecast for much of Brazil north of Rio, along with deficits of varying severity elsewhere in South America. By December the extent of exceptional water deficits in Brazil will diminish except along the Amazon River and in Amapá and Maranhão. From November on moderate deficits are forecast in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Europe: Water deficits are forecast to persist over the next several months in Finland, southern Norway and Sweden, the Baltics, eastern Germany, Eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Mediterranean. Water surpluses are forecast to persist, though diminished in extent and severity, in the United Kingdom, northern France and across the border into Germany. From November on, a transition to water surpluses across Northern Europe, the Baltics, European Russia, and later, Central Europe, is forecast.  Deficits remain in the forecast for countries along the Mediterranean Sea through April.

Africa: Though the severity of water deficits across North Africa is forecast to shrink from August through October, the widespread extent of deficits will remain the same. Deficits will also persist in Democratic Republic of the Congo, southeastern Central African Republic, and much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast to persist in northern Zambia through November. From November through January nearly all of Africa is forecast to experience some degree of water deficit, primarily moderate.

Middle East: The forecast for the Middle East through October, though an improvement over the widespread and exceptional water deficits of the preceding months, indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will remain extensive. Deficits of varying severity will persist on the Arabian Peninsula, in the Levant, southern Turkey, and much of Iran. These widespread water deficits will persist through April, but will diminish in severity from November on.

Central Asia and Russia: Water surpluses in Kazakhstan will begin to transition to conditions of both deficits and surpluses in the next few months. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to continue to emerge through November, abate for several months, and then re-emerge. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin August through October, followed by widespread and exceptional surpluses November through January.

South Asia: Water surpluses are forecast for central India for the next several months, though the extent and severity will diminish. Deficits are forecast for southern and northwestern India, western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Odisha, India in August and for Gujarat in December. Deficits will emerge in Sri Lanka in December. Moderate surpluses are expected to persist in Bangladesh through April.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Surpluses in western Borneo will diminish by September while surpluses on Java, and Flores Island may persist longer. From November on, deficits will increase in extent and severity on the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, and will emerge in northeastern Borneo.

East Asia: Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.

Australia: Water deficits are forecast to persist in western Tasmania through April, with greatest severity in August. Deficits in New Caledonia are forecast to persist through October; deficits across some far northern regions of Australia may linger through November; and deficits in the southwest tip of Western Australia, south of Adelaide, and in the Melbourne area will persist through April. Water surpluses are forecast for the Fitzroy River Basin and southwest of there, also in the Upper Murray River catchment.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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