The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2021 through October 2022 include: Chile, Texas (U.S), North Africa, Portugal, and Spain. Areas of significant water surplus include: China, India, Southeast Asia, and eastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 February 2022.
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
Though the severity of water deficits across North Africa is forecast to shrink from August through October, the widespread extent of deficits will remain the same. Deficits will also persist in Democratic Republic of the Congo, southeastern Central African Republic, and much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast to persist in northern Zambia through November. From November through January nearly all of Africa is forecast to experience some degree of water deficit, primarily moderate.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast and Southeast, southern Mexico, central Brazil, Finland, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: western Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Texas, the Ob and Volga River Basins in Russia, central India, the Yellow and Lower Yangtze Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2016.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across North Africa, gradually diminishing in extent and severity. Deficits of varying severity will also persist in much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast in northern Zambia though November. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central Botswana and in South Africa near Botswana in July. Water surpluses are forecast to persist through October in Tanzania and northeastern Mozambique.
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