Water deficits may continue to emerge throughout much of Mexico with greatest severity and extent in southern Mexico as seen in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses may persist in the northwest along the conjoined borders of Sonora and Chihuahua, and in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered deficits and some surpluses are forecast in Central America.

Scientists at the National Autonomous University of Mexico have urged state and federal action to alleviate impacts of what they describe as the worse drought in 50 years in Mexico's southwestern state of Michoacan. The drought has left crop failure, disease, shortage of pasture for livestock, and shortage of drinking water. Mexican livestock producers have had to import fodder, as both the availability and nutritional value of local forage has been compromised. In the state of Morelos farmers blocked highways to demand government support. The drought has affected producers of sorghum, corn, sugarcane and rice.

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. The extent and severity of deficits forecast in Mexico are expected to be basically consistent November through April, with exceptional deficits in the south. By May, and for the remainder of the forecast period, much of Mexico may be experiencing abnormal to exceptional water deficits. The Yucatan Peninsula may experience both deficits and surpluses.

Both deficits and surpluses are also forecast for Central America. Deficits may be more persistent in Guatemala and Panama. By the end of the forecast period – May through July – much of Central America may see abnormal (3-5 years) to severe (10-20 year) water deficits.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)


Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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