Exceptional water deficits may persist across northern Brazil, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile as seen in the 12-month map (below).

Surpluses are forecast for Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with exceptional surpluses in central Argentina.

In the Brazilian Amazon, exceptional and persistent drought has created unusually low river flows, negatively impacting electricity production and impeding navigation and shipping along rivers such as the Solimoes and the Rio Negro. In Manaus, capital of Amazonas, lakes are almost dry, putting the region's fisherman out of business and stranding seaplanes that use the lakes as landing strips. While northern Brazil faces drought, states in the south are fighting floods. Flooding in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina affected over 200,000 people. In Uruguay the Yaguarón and Uruguay Rivers overflowed, blocking highways and displacing residents.

Evident in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period is the forecast of a shift from deficit to surplus in northern South America primarily from February through April, with greatest extent and severity in April. Surpluses may begin to emerge in northern Peru and coastal Ecuador, and then in Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)


Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2019 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.