The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
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Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably in Brazil, but intense deficits are expected across the north and moderate deficits in much of the rest of the country. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and in Peru, southern Bolivia, and Chile, where conditions may be exceptional. Surpluses will moderate in central Colombia; downgrade slightly in Huánuco, Peru; and shrink somewhat in Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina.
Exceptional deficits will diminish in South America over the next several months but large pockets of intense deficit are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits are also expected to be intense in: northern and southeastern Venezuela; western Ecuador; western Peru; most of Chile, especially the Atacama Desert and Bío Bío; and, Río Chubut in Patagonian Argentina. Surpluses will downgrade in central and eastern Colombia, but will be severe.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months, but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela east of Lake Maracaibo and near the border with Guyana; southern Bolivia; and along a path beginning south of Lima, Peru, through northern Chile. Deficits in Argentina will moderate and surpluses will emerge in northern Buenos Aires Province.
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
Water deficits will diminish somewhat in South America over the next several months, but large pockets of exceptional deficit are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Maranhão, Tocantin, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits are also forecast for: southeastern Venezuela; southernmost Ecuador; along a path from Lima, Peru through northern Chile; southern Bolivia; and Tierra del Fuego. Deficits in the Argentine Pampas will downgrade but remain severe.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.