The region of exceptional water deficits is forecast to expand northward, including most of the country by August 2015, and continuing in most of the country through January 2016. On an annual basis, nearly the entire country will experience exceptional deficits by the end of 2015 and into 2016 (see figure).

On April 29 Venezuelan Vice-President Jorge Arreaza announced that the workday for public sector workers would be reduced to 5.5 hours to conserve electricity[1]. Although the government attributes energy problems to maintenance issues, historic low levels of the Guri reservoir (depicted on the bottom plot) have greatly reduced hydropower output from the dam, which provides about 65% of all the electricity in Venezuela.

ISciences has been following the situation for several months.  See our prior blog entries here and here.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index   for Feb 2015 through Jan 2016

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Feb 2015 through Jan 2016

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

[1] MercoPress. April 29, 2015. Oil rich but power short Venezuela cuts working day to save electricity.


Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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