ISciences is transitioning production of our monthly Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List reports to use outputs from a new version of our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). WSIMv2 makes use of more recent and publicly available input datasets and uses a revised methodology for calculating composite water anomalies.
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Zambia is forecast to experience continued severe and increasing loss of electricity generating capacity at least until December 2016, according to ISciences WSIM Electricity Assessment. The WSIM Electricity Assessment is produced monthly and shows current and forecast estimated power losses globally for the next nine months.
A sixty-year record of extreme weather conditions shows a disturbing pattern of deficit surface water conditions throughout Amazonia.The Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM) developed by ISCIENCES LLC is used to examine average monthly hydrological conditions throughout the basin. An apparent correlation with the emergence of temperature extremes over the same period begs the question whether man-made climate change is the root cause.The literature however points to man-made deforestation as the critical factor, raising concern that "the Amazon is losing the ability to control it's own climate." If true, consequences will have profound impact on the region and the global environment.
Though water deficits may moderate in Southern Africa through December, exceptional deficits are possible January through March.
Water deficits may persist in Coastal West Africa through March 2016 with exceptional water deficits forecast in October.
Widespread water deficits are forecast for much of Iran through March 2016, though deficits will vary in severity. Provinces along the Persian Gulf may continue to experience deficits through September. Beginning in October the most intense deficits shift towards the central and eastern portions of Iran.
Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months. Thailand and New Guinea may be hardest hit.
Water deficits are now expected to be most intense during the second half of the monsoon season (August-October 2015), with exceptional deficits centered on Uttar Pradesh and surrounding areas. Moderate surpluses are now forecast for Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh.
The current forecast for the 3-month period ending in October 2015 (below right) indicates that deficits in many areas of the Horn may be widespread and severe with pockets of exceptional deficits in Yemen. However, the large areas of exceptional deficits indicated in the prior forecast (below left) are no longer expected.
The current forecast for Jordan for the 3-month period ending October 2015 has moderated from the prior forecast. Though much of Jordan is expected to experience deficits, those deficits are not expected to be exceptional.