WATCHING: United States and Northern Mexico, Southern Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Europe, the Levant and Middle East, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2015 and running through April 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

More detailed posts on each of the following regions will be available soon. Additional analysis is available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast August 14, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Northern Mexico: Exceptional deficit conditions are forecast to persist in northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Surpluses may begin to appear in southern California in December. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for a broad swath of the Southwest, Texas, northwestern Mexico, and in the US Central Plains and Midwest.

Southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Widespread exceptional deficit conditions are forecast to persist and spread in southern Mexico, Central America, Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.

South America: Exceptional deficits may continue across much of northern South America. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along much of the Pacific Coast, particularly persistent in Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil and Paraguay in the August-October time frame and then expanding into northern Argentina and Uruguay November 2015-April 2016.

The Levant and the Middle East: Extreme to exceptional water deficits may dominate the region, including central Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan, southern Iraq, and central Iran.

Europe: Widespread deficits are expected from Portugal to Ukraine through October, with greatest extent and severity in Belarus and western Ukraine. Deficits may diminish and transition to surpluses in Western Europe November 2015-January 2016, and in Central Europe February-April.

Africa: Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist and intensify in a swath of countries in coastal West Africa from southern Liberia to Angola, and may continue to emerge in southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Tanzania and surrounding areas.

South Asia: Almost all of southern India is forecast to have at least moderate deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for: a large region in south-central India including northern Karnataka, Telangana, and northern Andhra Pradesh; the northern border region between Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; portions of Odisha; and, southern Tamil Nadu. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Indus River Basin, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits in Southeast Asia are forecast to persist, particularly in Thailand. Similarly, exceptional deficits are forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua. Deficits may also continue in the Philippines.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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