Canada: Water deficits to downgrade in SK & MB
21 August 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through April 2019 (below) indicates large pockets of intense water deficit in every province, and large pockets of intense surplus in southern British Columbia and northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta.
Intense deficits are forecast to encompass vast blocks in: eastern Quebec from the Caniapiscau Reservoir to the St. Lawrence River; around Lake Mistassini in central Quebec; Ontario’s eastern border; northeastern Manitoba and north of Lake Winnipeg; the Lower Athabasca and Lower Peace River regions of Alberta; surrounding Prince George, British Columbia and in the northwest. Intense deficits are also forecast in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, including around Regina (SK) and Winnipeg (MB).
Exceptional surplus conditions are expected in a large block of northwestern Saskatchewan around Churchill Lake westward to Fort McMurray, Alberta; surrounding Kamloops and Kelowna, British Columbia; and in far eastern Quebec.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through October indicates some retreat of exceptional deficits overall, especially in southern Saskatchewan (SK) and southern Manitoba (MB) where deficits are expected to downgrade, becoming mild to moderate. Deficits will shrink in British Columbia (BC) around Prince George, though remain exceptional; will downgrade somewhat in Alberta (AB) and along Ontario’s (ON) eastern border, though remain intense. Deficits in Quebec (QC) will shrink somewhat but remain widespread. Exceptional surpluses in southern BC and northeastern AB into SK will diminish, with conditions of both deficit and surplus forecast as transition occur.
From November through January, exceptional deficits will nearly disappear. Deficits are expected to be moderate to extreme in northern BC, moderate to severe in central AB, and primarily moderate in central SK, central MB, and northwestern ON. Moderate deficits are also forecast along the northern border of ON/QC but could be severe in some areas. Exceptional surpluses will persist in BC surrounding Kelowna and leading north; surpluses of lesser intensity are expected near Fort St. John in the northeast. Surpluses will increase in north-central AB, and intense surpluses are forecast to persist near Fort McMurray. Some moderate surpluses are expected in northwestern MB into northeastern SK.
The forecast for the final three months – February through April – indicates conditions similar to the forecast for the prior three months in the interior provinces, but surpluses are forecast to emerge in eastern QC, and throughout much of BC.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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Canada’s minister for public safety and emergency preparedness announced that Canada has spent more money in the last six years on cleaning up damage done by fires and floods than it had in the prior history of the program dating back to 1970, urging government to take more medium-to-long- term actions against such effects of climate change.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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