The forecast through April indicates exceptional water deficits across Quebec from Hudson Bay into central Labrador, and exceptional deficits in the Ottawa-Gatineau region, northern New Brunswick, and around Fortune Bay on the Island of Newfoundland. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist along Ontario’s eastern border; surpluses are forecast around Toronto. Intense deficits are expected in southern Saskatchewan and the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Athabasca River in Alberta. Surpluses are forecast in southern British Columbia and severe deficits in southern Vancouver Island.
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The forecast through February indicates a pattern of anomalies similar to the prior three months, including: exceptional water deficits in Quebec, notably in the Ottawa-Gatineau River region in the south and across the border into Ontario; intense deficits in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta; and intense surpluses in southeastern British Columbia. Deficits are expected to increase in southern Saskatchewan where anomalies will be severe to exceptional.
The forecast through October indicates some retreat of exceptional water deficits, especially in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba where deficits are expected to downgrade, becoming mild to moderate. Deficits will shrink in British Columbia around Prince George, though remain exceptional; will downgrade somewhat in Alberta and along Ontario’s eastern border; and will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread. Exceptional surpluses in southern BC will diminish.
The July Outlook indicates exceptionally drier than normal conditions for most of southern Mexico into Central America. Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Ireland and western United Kingdom, as well as many other parts of the world.
The May Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in East Africa, Uruguay, and Bangladesh. Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected in India, Egypt, Sudan, and Northeast China.
The near-term forecast indicates a pattern of water anomalies much like the prior three months. Widespread surpluses will continue in northeastern Quebec, central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan and into Alberta, the central border of Alberta and British Columbia, and southeastern BC. Deficit areas include: central Quebec and the Ontario/Quebec border; northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba; and southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. After March, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will transition to deficit.
While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.
The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2017 through June 2018 include: Amapá (Brazil), Estonia, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Madhya Pradesh (India), western Cambodia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar, the Upper and Middle Yangtze River (China), and the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins and the Transvolga Region (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 October 2017.
The near-term forecast through October indicates a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits in the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will persist in central Quebec and southern Newfoundland, and emerge east of the St. Lawrence River, in New Brunswick, and in southern Nova Scotia. Surpluses are expected to persist in central Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, a large block of northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, southeastern British Columbia, and near Ottawa and west of Toronto. After October conditions will continue to moderate, though some exceptional surpluses will persist.