The forecast through April indicates exceptional water deficits across Quebec from Hudson Bay into central Labrador, and exceptional deficits in the Ottawa-Gatineau region, northern New Brunswick, and around Fortune Bay on the Island of Newfoundland. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist along Ontario’s eastern border; surpluses are forecast around Toronto. Intense deficits are expected in southern Saskatchewan and the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Athabasca River in Alberta. Surpluses are forecast in southern British Columbia and severe deficits in southern Vancouver Island.
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Through December, exceptional water deficits in the east will shrink somewhat, and moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in much of northern Ontario with intense deficits in the northwest. Deficits will diminish considerably in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces, though moderate deficits will linger in southern Manitoba and will emerge along the North Saskatchewan River. Elsewhere in the west the pattern of anomalies will remain much the same as in the prior three months.
The forecast through October indicates some retreat of exceptional water deficits, especially in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba where deficits are expected to downgrade, becoming mild to moderate. Deficits will shrink in British Columbia around Prince George, though remain exceptional; will downgrade somewhat in Alberta and along Ontario’s eastern border; and will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread. Exceptional surpluses in southern BC will diminish.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to decrease, though vast blocks will persist. These areas include: Quebec from the Caniapiscau Reservoir to the St. Lawrence River; surrounding Lake Mistassini, QC; Ontario’s eastern border; northeastern Manitoba; the Lower Athabasca River region in Alberta; surrounding Prince George, British Columbia; and, northwestern BC. Intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan reaching west to Fort McMurray, Alberta, and in southeastern BC.
The July Outlook indicates exceptionally drier than normal conditions for most of southern Mexico into Central America. Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Ireland and western United Kingdom, as well as many other parts of the world.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to decrease but will persist in many areas, including along Ontario’s eastern border. Surpluses are expected northwest of Toronto, and moderate deficits from Peterborough to Ottawa. In Quebec, deficits will be extreme around Sherbrooke. Severe deficits are forecast for southern Manitoba. Deficits will be intense in the Upper Athabasca and Lower Peace River Regions of Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC. Surpluses will increase in southern BC and will be exceptional around Kamloops and Kelowna.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
Two transitions stand out in the near-term forecast: a change from water surplus to deficit in northern Quebec, and the emergence of widespread, exceptional surpluses in southeastern British Columbia. Deficits will diminish overall but are forecast along Ontario’s eastern border; in northeastern Manitoba and north of Lake Winnipeg; in northwest Alberta and north and west of Edmonton; around Prince George, BC, and in northwest BC. Surpluses will emerge in eastern Quebec near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and will increase along the northern border of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
Water deficits are forecast for much of the eastern half of the country and will increase on the Ontario/Quebec border corridor. Widespread, intense surpluses will emerge in southeastern British Columbia (BC), particularly surrounding Kamloops and Kelowna. Intense deficits will continue to emerge around Prince George, BC. Deficits in the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta will intensify, becoming exceptional. Exceptional surplus conditions will persist from Fort McMurray, Alberta to Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan, and around Fort St. John in the Peace River Region of northeastern BC.